Isn’t “flattening the curve” one of those concepts that shape-shifted without us being aware of it?
Originally, it was to mean that the disease would run its course, infect 20-70% of the population, we’d just slow it down so the healthcare system wouldn’t get overwhelmed.
Today, “flattening the curve” apparently means: suppress ASAP and keep R0 below 1. Which means we’ll continue to live in a susceptible, tinderbox world. At least if and until a vaccine is found.
Or am I missing something here?
The 1918 Flu pandemic’s Second Wave killed massive amounts of young, healthy adults. 99% of deaths occurred in people under 65, and half of all deaths were in young adults 20 to 40 years old. Source: Wikipedia.
Apparently the virus had naturally selected in the trenches to become much more deadly. People mildly ill remained in the trenches, and so the virus could not spread. But those becoming gravely ill were taken to military hospitals, were the virus could spread.
This is the opposite of what usually happens: mild cases spread because people still do their usual activities. Serious cases limit because people are too sick to spread it around.
This is the very reason why epidemiologists monitor virus outbreaks in conflict zones: natural selection is reversed, resulting in a deadly virus strain.
Isn’t that exactly what we are doing in our lockdown world? We are socially distancing and self-isolating, so mild cases always die out. But when we get critically ill. we have to go to hospitals which, despite our best efforts, are hotbeds of infection.
Sounds to me like we have a good chance for the second Covid-19 wave to be much deadlier.