It is very difficult to accurately predict certain types of extremely complex events (particularly those past a singularity point) -- to the point that it’s not worth trying to create an extremely accurate prediction using a complex model (factors you underweighted or did not consider could blow out the other factors)
It is still very useful to prepare for and assume that there is some likelihood of these hard to predict events happening
That’s the whole argument. I see this in business too: you don’t have enough information about a risk—and it is impossible to gather enough information (traded for time, opportunity cost, etc.)
But you still have to act on that possibility, it’s still rational to have a contingency
I disagree for this reason:
It is very difficult to accurately predict certain types of extremely complex events (particularly those past a singularity point) -- to the point that it’s not worth trying to create an extremely accurate prediction using a complex model (factors you underweighted or did not consider could blow out the other factors)
It is still very useful to prepare for and assume that there is some likelihood of these hard to predict events happening
That’s the whole argument. I see this in business too: you don’t have enough information about a risk—and it is impossible to gather enough information (traded for time, opportunity cost, etc.)
But you still have to act on that possibility, it’s still rational to have a contingency