This is a great example. It’s often very hard to tell whether MWA are independent or not. They could all derive from the same factors. Or they could all be made up by the same type of motivated reasoning.
I think that’s the judgment of being a good “Fox” ala Tetlock’s Hedgehog vs the Fox.
It’s much harder to make well formed predictions than one would initially suspect. The fun part about PB is trying to make them, that you don’t get on GJP.