(aware that this is 2 years late, just decided to post) I find that I work, on average,somewhere between 2-3 times as fast when I am right up next to a deadline,than when I have plenty of time.
Quill_McGee
http://www.fungible.com/respect/index.html This looks to be very related to the idea of “Observe someone’s actions. Assume they are trying to accomplish something. Work out what they are trying to accomplish.” Which seems to be what you are talking about.
My resolution to this, without changing my intuitions to pick things that I currently perceive as ‘simply wrong’, would be that I value certainty. A 9⁄10 chance of winning x dollars is worth much less to me than a 10⁄10 chance of winning 9x/10 dollars. However, a 2⁄10 chance of winning x dollars is worth only barely less than a 4⁄10 chance of winning x/2 dollars, because as far as I can tell the added utility of the lack of worrying increases massively as the more certain option approaches 100%. Now, this becomes less powerful the closer the odds, are, but slower than the dollar difference between the two change. So a 99% chance of x is barely effected by this compared to a 100% chance of .99x, but still by a greater value than .01x, and the more likely option still dominates. I might take a 99% chance of x over a 100% chance of .9x, however, and I would definitely prefer a 99% chance of x over a 100% chance of 0.8x.
EDIT: Upon further consideration, this is wrong. If presented with the actual choice, I would still prefer 1A to 1B, but to maintain consistency I will now choose 2A > 2B.
Well, this comes up different ways under different interpretations. If there is a chance that I am being simulated, that is this is part of his determining my choice, then I give him $100. If the coin is quantum, that is there will exist other mes getting the money, I give him $100. If there is a chance that I will encounter similar situations again, I give him $100. If I were informed of the deal beforehand, I give him $100. Given that I am not simulated, given that the coin is deterministic, and given that I will never again encounter Omega, I don’t think I give him $100. Seeing as I can treat this entirely in isolation due to these conditions, I have the choice between -$100 and $0, of which two options the second is better. Now, this runs into some problems. If I were informed of it beforehand, I should have precommitted. Seeing as my choices given all information shouldn’t change, this presents difficulty. However, due to the uniqueness of this deal, there really does seem to be no benefit to any mes from giving him the money, and so it is purely a loss.
Personally, I fall on the ‘all of the above(except idea A)’ side of the fence. I primarily use LessWrong for the Main board, as it is an excellent source of well-edited, well-considered articles, containing interesting or useful ideas. I want the remainder of the site to thrive because if there is not a large, active userbase and new users being attracted, then I would expect to see the types of content I want to see become less frequent. All of these ideas seem like good things to do, keeping in mind that if these do not actually support the goal of making good Main articles more frequent, then they are not good things, and it seems possible that some of these could backfire.
“S proves that A()=1 ⇒ U()=42. But S also proves that A()=1 ⇒ U()=1000000, therefore S proves that A()≠1” I don’t see how this follows. Perhaps it is because, if the system was sound, it would never prove more than one value for U() for a given a, therefore by the principle of explosion it proves A()≠1? But that doesn’t seem to actually follow. I’m aware that this is an old post, but on the off chance that anyone ever actually sees this comment, help would be appreciated.
I assume you either linked to this in the post, or it has been mentioned in the comments, but I did not catch it in either location if it was present, so I’m linking to it anyway: http://intelligence.org/files/Non-Omniscience.pdf contains a not merely computable but tractable algorithm for assigning probabilities to a given set of first-order sentences.
I would disagree with the phrasing you use regarding ‘human terminal values.’ Now, I don’t disagree that evolution optimized humans according to those criteria, but I am not evolution, and evolution’s values are not my values. I would expect that only a tiny fraction of humans would say that evolution’s values should be our values(I’d like to say ‘none,’ but radical neo-darwinians might exist). Now, if you were just saying that those are the values of the optimization process that produced humanity, I agree, but that was not what I interpreted you as saying.
It should be noted that if measured IQ is fat-tailed, this is because there is something wrong with IQ tests. IQ is defined to be normally distributed with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of either 15 or 16 depending on which definition you’re using. So if measured IQ is fat-tailed, then the tests aren’t calibrated properly(of course, if your test goes all the way up to 160, it is almost inevitably miscalibrated, because there just aren’t enough people to calibrate it with).
There might be one more stone not visible?
Darn it, and I counted like five times to make sure there really were 10 visible before I said anything. I didn’t realize that the stone the middle-top stone was on top of was one stone, not two.
Wasn’t Löb’s theorem ∀ A (Provable(Provable(A) → A) → Provable(A))? So you get Provable(⊥) directly, rather than passing through ⊥ first. This is good, as, of course, ⊥ is always false, even if it is provable.
I think that what Joshua was talking about by ‘infinite loop’ is ‘passing through the same state an infinite number of times.’ That is, a /loop/, rather than just a line with no endpoint. although this would rule out (some arbitrary-size int type) x = 0; while(true){ x++; } on a machine with infinite memory, as it would never pass through the same state twice. So maybe I’m still misunderstanding.
That AI doesn’t drop an anvil on its head(I think...), but it also doesn’t self-improve.
I don’t think he was talking about self-PA, but rather an altered decision criteria, such that rather that “if I can prove this is good, do it” it is “if I can prove that if I am consistent then this is good, do it” which I think doesn’t have this particular problem, though it does have others, and it still can’t /increase/ in proof strength.
“if I can prove that if a version of me with unbounded computational resources is consistent then this is good, do it”
In this formalism we generally assume infinite resources anyway. And even if this is not the case, consistent/inconsistent doesn’t depend on resources, only on the axioms and rules for deduction. So this still doesn’t let you increase in proof strength, although again it should help avoid losing it.
In the Least Convenient Possible World of this hypothetical, every dust speck causes a constant small amount of harm with no knock-on effects(no avoiding buses, no crashing cars...)
In the Least Convenient Possible World of this hypothetical, each and every dust speck causes a small constant amount of harm, with no knock-on effects(no increasing one’s appreciation of the moments when one does not have dust in ones eye, no preventing a ‘boring painless existence,’ nothing of the sort). Now it may be argued whether this would occur with actual dust, but that is not really the question at hand. Dust was just chosen as being a ‘seemingly trivial bad thing.’ and if you prefer some other trivial bad thing, just replace that in the problem and the question remains the same.
exactly! No knock-on effects. Perhaps you meant to comment on the grandparent(great-grandparent? do I measure from this post or your post?) instead?
Does it count if the state of trying lasted for a long(but now ended) time? because if so, I kept on trying to create a bijection between the reals and the wholes, until I was about 13 and found an actual number that I could actually write down that none of my obvious ideas could reach, and find an equivalent for all the non obvious ones.( 0.21111111..., by the way)