Petruchio

Karma: 216

Petruchio 6 Feb 2014 2:48 UTC
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in reply to: Nornagest’s comment on: Open Thread for February 3 − 10
Poker also requires the skill of identifying and avoiding tilt, the state of being emotionally charged leading to the sacrifice of good decision-making. A nice look of the baises which need to be reduce to play effective poker can be found at Rationalpoker.com.

I suppose poker is more of a rationality drill than exercise, and just a physicist may be successful in his field while having a broken personal life, so may a poker player fall to the same trap.

Petruchio 6 Feb 2014 2:37 UTC
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in reply to: JRMayne’s comment on: Open Thread for February 3 − 10
Excellent post. Thank you for the detailed response.

Right now, I have been struggling with calculating pot odds and implied odds. I grasp what they are conceptually, but actually calculating them has been a bust thus far. Is there any guidence you could give with this?

As far as legality in the US, I am playing in the state of Delaware with one of thier licensed sites, so I think I am in the clear. The play is very thin though, and I am looking to make my way to the brick and mortars in Alantic City to see if it will be a good sandbox to become better.

Petruchio 4 Feb 2014 23:32 UTC
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on: Self-Study Questions Thread
My newest interest is to become a winning poker player. I have recently recented advice doing so professionally isn’t quite feasible, since the sanity waterline has risen in the online poker world. However, I am not fully discouraged and I wish to pursue the skills needed to become an above average player, if not a professional one. Also, I am considering brick and mortar poker games in addition to online games.

I have been having some trouble calculating pot odds and implied odds. I grasp what they are conceptually, but actually calculating them has been a bust for me. These skills are needed for value betting, and what I have found online so far has been difficult to understand.

Petruchio 4 Feb 2014 23:08 UTC
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in reply to: Tenoke’s comment on: Open Thread for February 3 − 10
Thank you for the heads up. I’ll keep it to more causal play. Do you have any experience to with brick and mortar poker? And what are you doing now if you are no longer (presumably) playing professionally?

Petruchio 4 Feb 2014 2:52 UTC
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in reply to: Metus’s comment on: Open Thread for February 3 − 10
I agree, there is alot of talk about mathematics and formal systems. There is big love for Epistemic Rationality, and this is shown in the topics below. Some exceptions exist of course, a thread about what type of chair to buy stands out.

But I agree, Emotional Intelligence is a large set of skills underappreciated here, and I admit though I have some knowledge to share on the subject, I do not feel particularly qualified to write a post on it.

Petruchio 3 Feb 2014 18:43 UTC
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on: Open Thread for February 3 − 10
I have just started playing poker online. On Less Wrong Discussion, Poker has been called an exercise in instrumental rationality, and a so-called Rationality Dojo was opened via RationalPoker.com. I have perused this site, but it has been dormant since July 2011. Other sources exist, such as 2 + 2, Pokerology and Play Winning Poker, but none of them have the quality of content or style that I have found on Less Wrong. Is anyone here a serious poker player? Is there any advice for someone who wants to become a winning player themselves?

Petruchio 1 Aug 2013 21:04 UTC
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in reply to: VincentYu’s comment on: More “Stupid” Questions
Personally, I find it difficult to enjoy “typical” lyrical poetry, but I appreciate epic poetry a great deal more. Epic poetry not only aims to capture the drama of an event, but also to encapsulate an entire culture of a people. The Iliad and the Odyssey were the first two i have read, and they are not only about the Trojan War and the return home of one of its heroes, but it touches on every aspect of Greek society. War, love, food, honor, virtue, cowardice, honoring the gods, pissing off the gods, the gods pissing you off, hospitality, ethics, punishment, the afterlife, nobility and servitude, all touched upon.

For more conventional (and shorter) poetry, some of the enjoyment comes from the prosody and lyrical qualities of the poem. Reading them out loud increases my own enjoyment. Otherwise, there is oft a multitude of “senses” and meanings in poetry, which provides a pleasant meditation. Some quality poems to read (as a start) would be “the Raven” by Edgar Allen Poe, and “Ozymandias” by Percy Shelley

Petruchio 1 Aug 2013 12:38 UTC
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on: More “Stupid” Questions
What course of action has MIRI taken to attain a provable FAI?

Petruchio 26 Jul 2013 17:28 UTC
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in reply to: CellBioGuy’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 25, chapter 96
That does sounds like a solid theory as to why Wizards celebrate those holidays. I’ll update my beliefs with this new evidence.

Petruchio 25 Jul 2013 17:21 UTC
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in reply to: Kindly’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 25, chapter 96
I took that passage to indicate the tradition of green and red colors during Christmastide, not of the origination of any holiday,

Petruchio 25 Jul 2013 15:11 UTC
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in reply to: thomblake’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 25, chapter 96
I am confused.

The particular Bible passage was written in Greek a solid millennia before Hogwarts was built, it was available in Latin at least since the 4th century (Latin being the language of the educated post-Roman Empire, and the language which magic seems to be based off of), and, according to a quick Wikipedia search, translated into Old English by the Venerable Bede in the 7th century.

Petruchio 25 Jul 2013 15:00 UTC
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in reply to: kilobug’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 25, chapter 96
1. Wizards celebrate both Christmas and Easter. No idea why they would, but that is established in HPMoR and in canon. With the exception of Roger Bacon, we have not heard much of anything about religious witches or wizards, but it will strike me as strange the magical world has no religions, if only from the muggleborns and their descendants.
2. The quote “The last enemy to be destroyed is death” precedes the Peverell brothers by a solid millennia. While the Deathly Hallows is provides (weak) evidence in the other direction, even if it were a family motto, the origination is probably from the bible, as would be common from an old, heraldic family. Still, it is sounds like a suitable epitaph.
And of course, this presumes another deviation from canon, or to say a myth from canon, that the Peverell brothers created the Deathly Hallows, rather than receiving them from Death. Death, who exists in as a semi-sentient semi-being in HPMoR.

On a related note… What happened to the tattered cloak left by the Dementor in Chapter 45? May there be two True Cloaks of Invisibility?

Petruchio 25 Jul 2013 13:22 UTC
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on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 25, chapter 96
It strikes me as strange taking the words “The last enemy to be destroyed is death” as a family motto and manifesto, considering that it orginates from 1 Corinthians 15:26, concerning the resurrection of the dead, Jesus Christ’s second coming and the abolishment of death. While it is similiar to Harry’s goal, it certainly opposes it by way of means. Harry seeking the abolishment of death through mortal, albeit supernatural and magical, means opposes the divine plan of God. That Harry took this as a mission pasted down the Potter line generation to generation seems a lot more unlikely than it being a suitable epitaph on a gravestone.

Petruchio 17 Jul 2013 17:44 UTC
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on: Duller blackmail definitions
Perhaps I am missing something, this seems to be an accurate model of opportunism of which blackmail itself is a subset. Namely, both examples given are a type of opportunism which the agent exploits the target’s desire for a particular value (either reputation or a MacGuffin) for profit, despite the risks of lost value balanced against the target’s anticipated value. Blackmail, colloquially, is typically used to denote the above by use of incriminating information (such as steamy letters), while purchasing the MacGuffin may be called any number of things depending on the character of the act.

Petruchio 11 Jul 2013 12:07 UTC
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on: Help please! Making a good choice between two jobs
Besides Viliam_Bur’s comment, I would say do the math. Assign a numerical value to each aspect to the location, weigh them accordingly, and compare the final values. After this is done, toss it all out and go with your (informed) gut instinct.

Petruchio 11 Jul 2013 11:41 UTC
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on: Seed Study: Polyphasic Sleep in Ten Steps
I tried to get onto the Uberman sleep schedule twice while at university, but ended up failing around 5 days in. Your plan of easing into it may significantly improve the probability of success, so I am very excited for you.

One thing to watch out for is the increase intake of food. When doing it the first time, I did not think to connect a 37.5% increase in waking time with an increase in calories. I ended up having bouts of extreme coldness in the middle of the night because of this, which added one more thing to the unpleasantness of being awake.

Be careful of micro sleeping, where you fall asleep for a fraction of a second at a time. I do not know how to avoid it except powering through. You may experience hallucinations, or more accurately, you’ll fall asleep, have a vivid dream, wake up and not realized you fell asleep in the first place. Again, this occurs over a half a second or so.

There might be some supplements that will assist with the schedule, but I do not know which. Omega-3 fatty acid probably will help. A multi-vitamin wouldn’t hurt either. Soylent, if it works, would be perfect for this project.

I do not have an accommodating job for the Uberman or even the Everyman schedule, but I wish the best of luck.

Petruchio 24 May 2013 13:28 UTC
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in reply to: Viliam_Bur’s comment on: Maximizing Financial Utility and Frugality
It is not a hindsight bias; it is based using an analysis of historical returns to anticipate future returns, which is a distinction. But you make a good point on comparing the American economy to foreign economy. If someone invested in the Russian economy 100 years ago, they would have lost everything in the Communist Revolution, likewise if they invested in Germany, they would have lost it in WWI, WWII and the partition of East and West Germany. However if you invested in either country 30 years ago, you would have made bank on the fall of Communism.

Generally, if is difficult to hedge against political risks in your own country. If WWIII happens, then pretty much nothing is guaranteed. Investments, property, careers and lives are in uncertain flux, and all may be lost. Barring such catastrophic events, I may hedge the risk of American underperforming the rest of the work by investing in foreign companies, or trans-national companies. This is not something I will be doing right now (I have more faith in America’s economy then the rest of the world) but it is something to consider for the future.

Petruchio 24 May 2013 13:08 UTC
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in reply to: Wei Dai’s comment on: Maximizing Financial Utility and Frugality
It is true that with a 50% stock, 50% bond diversification, there has been a small historical failure rate for the 4% withdrawal rate. If the first 30 years after my retirement are the worst seen since WWII, then I may be in trouble.

With this in mind, we may hedge against this. You may work for a bit longer and save enough to go with a 3.5% or even a 3% withdrawal rate, take on jobs or projects intermittently during your retirement to boost your savings, or receiving social security or some other another government social program once you are old enough to qualify. Other more random factors which may hedge in your favor will be your children growing up and moving out of the house (permanently lowering your expenses), downsizing your home or moving to a rental once your kids are grown, or receiving an inheritance.

Of course, the paper you cite anticipates a higher failure rate due to lower bond rates. These lower rates may be a historical aberration, as mentioned in the abstract. I have not invested in bonds because of the very low rates, and am holding a stock-only, albeit dividend paying, index fund. I view bonds as a hedge against deflation. Besides junk bonds, the ROI is much too low for my taste.

I am anticipating an eventual portfolio of 50% Stock, 30% REITs and 20% Bonds, unlike the study’s 50% stock, 50% bond. I also hope to have some rental property, but this is a long term idea. In the meantime, I should anticipate more volatility, but until I retire I will be comfortable with that. If you, on the other hand, prefer otherwise, you should go with bonds, save more and aim for a lower withdrawal rate.

However, the crux of this sequence is not investing, but extreme saving. Investing strategies differ due to anticipated needs and tolerance of risk. However, making a habit of saving most of your income should give you the greatest possible utility no matter what your investment or retirement plans are.

Petruchio 24 May 2013 12:29 UTC
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in reply to: someonewrongonthenet’s comment on: Maximizing Financial Utility and Frugality
Two excellent suggestions.

1) Very good point, and I will be changing the name of this post. I named it Rational Financial Planning Overview as a counter to another discussion post Preparing for a Rational Financial Planning Sequence, the ideas which I disagree with. I did not expect for my post to be taken as well as it has (a very pleasant surprise) so I will be changing the name to more accurately reflect its contents.

2) I did not think of this, though I should have. Cutting your expenses and saving/investing the greater majority of your income is applicable in any financial endeavor. I will be adding an edit to this effect.

Thank you very much.

Petruchio 24 May 2013 1:47 UTC
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in reply to: gjm’s comment on: Maximizing Financial Utility and Frugality
Like you said, that is a very conservative estimate, but entirely accurate. If we experience a horrible depression which gives me no investment returns for 20 years, I still will be able to retire at age 43.

The rule of thumb is that you need (Current_Expenses x 25). This is a 4% withdrawal rate, and should last you forever. If you want to go even safer (the Trinity Study suggests that 4% is plenty safe) go with 3% and multiple your expenses by 33.

Implication: You must save 25 dollars or so for each dollar you spend. So you go out and earn an extra 25 dollars, or figure out how to spend one dollar less.