Most assets are priced off expectations. And as you suggest, not many people expect a 30 year slump. Suppose an asset paid off relatively well for a 30 year slump, but not otherwise. It wouldn’t cost much because most people would believe it isn’t worth much, and you could buy it at, say, 1/10000th of the payoff. If the world came to unanimous expectation a 30 year slump, then the price would increase towards the payoff value and you would be much richer from the capital gain.
Or do you want something that pays off well after 30 years of slump, irrespective of other people’s beliefs, say from generating a high yield each year? In this case, a good investment strategy might be to buy shares in companies with lots of intellectual capital like Intel and Pharmaceutical makers. Without the need to invest in R&D and innovate, and without the threat of others innovating, those kinds of companies could provide a nice income each year from exploiting their existing intellectual capital, simply selling the same old stuff at the same prices.
You should refine the question:
Most assets are priced off expectations. And as you suggest, not many people expect a 30 year slump. Suppose an asset paid off relatively well for a 30 year slump, but not otherwise. It wouldn’t cost much because most people would believe it isn’t worth much, and you could buy it at, say, 1/10000th of the payoff. If the world came to unanimous expectation a 30 year slump, then the price would increase towards the payoff value and you would be much richer from the capital gain.
Or do you want something that pays off well after 30 years of slump, irrespective of other people’s beliefs, say from generating a high yield each year? In this case, a good investment strategy might be to buy shares in companies with lots of intellectual capital like Intel and Pharmaceutical makers. Without the need to invest in R&D and innovate, and without the threat of others innovating, those kinds of companies could provide a nice income each year from exploiting their existing intellectual capital, simply selling the same old stuff at the same prices.