Assuming you have a >10% of living forever, wouldn’t that necessitate avoiding all chance at accidental death to minimize the “die before AGI” section. If you assume AGI is inevitable, then one should simply maximize risk aversion to prevent cessation of consciousness or at least permanent information loss of their brain.
Whatever the probability of AGI in the reasonably near future (5-10 years), the probability of societal shifts due to implementation of highly capable yet sub-AGI AI is strictly higher. I think regardless of where AI “lands” in terms of slowing down in progress (if it is the case we see an AI winter/fall), the application of systems that exist even just today, even if technological progress were to stop, is enough to merit appreciating the different world that is coming within the same order of magnitude as how different it would be with AGI.
I think it’s almost impossible at this point to argue against the value of providence with respect to the rise of dumb (in the relative to AGI sense) but highly highly capable AI.
I’ve often thought that seniority/credential based hierarchies are stable and prevalent both because they benefit those already in power, and they provide a defined, predictable path for low status members to become high status. One is more motivated to contribute and support a system that guarantees them high status after X years if they are of middling competence, rather than a system that requires them to be among the best at some quantifiable metric. The longer someone spends in a company, the more invested they become in their relative position in the company rather than the company’s absolute success, and if the company has gotten “too big to fail”, it’s much more predictably personally beneficial to prioritize personal relative status since the company will do well either way.