ozziegooen(Ozzie Gooen)

Karma: 3,222

I’m currently researching forecasting and epistemics as part of the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute.

Meetup : San Francisco: Effective Altruism

ozziegooen23 Jun 2013 21:48 UTC

7 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Creating a Text Shorthand for Uncertainty

ozziegooen19 Oct 2013 16:46 UTC

11 points

29 comments3 min readLW link

Reference Frames for Expected Value

ozziegooen16 Mar 2014 19:22 UTC

8 points

25 comments6 min readLW link

Why “Changing the World” is a Horrible Phrase

ozziegooen25 Dec 2014 6:04 UTC

38 points

16 comments5 min readLW link

Understanding Who You Really Are

ozziegooen2 Jan 2015 8:44 UTC

10 points

21 comments2 min readLW link

Graphical Assumption Modeling

ozziegooen3 Jan 2015 20:22 UTC

32 points

23 comments5 min readLW link

Expected Error, or how wrong you expect to be

ozziegooen24 Dec 2016 22:49 UTC

21 points

8 comments6 min readLW link

Critique my Model: The EV of AGI to Selfish Individuals

ozziegooen8 Apr 2018 20:04 UTC

19 points

9 comments4 min readLW link

Prediction-Augmented Evaluation Systems

ozziegooen9 Nov 2018 10:55 UTC

44 points

12 comments8 min readLW link

Current AI Safety Roles for Software Engineers

ozziegooen9 Nov 2018 20:57 UTC

70 points

9 comments4 min readLW link

What if people simply forecasted your future choices?

ozziegooen23 Nov 2018 10:52 UTC

16 points

6 comments6 min readLW link

Stabilize-Reflect-Execute

ozziegooen28 Nov 2018 17:26 UTC

30 points

1 comment2 min readLW link

Overconfident talking down, humble or hostile talking up

ozziegooen30 Nov 2018 12:41 UTC

49 points

19 comments3 min readLW link

The RAIN Framework for Informational Effectiveness

ozziegooen13 Feb 2019 12:54 UTC

35 points

16 comments6 min readLW link

Three Kinds of Research Documents: Exploration, Explanation, Academic

ozziegooen13 Feb 2019 21:25 UTC

22 points

18 comments3 min readLW link

Short story: An AGI’s Repugnant Physics Experiment

ozziegooen14 Feb 2019 14:46 UTC

9 points

5 comments1 min readLW link

The Prediction Pyramid: Why Fundamental Work is Needed for Prediction Work

ozziegooen14 Feb 2019 16:21 UTC

43 points

15 comments3 min readLW link

Can We Place Trust in Post-AGI Forecasting Evaluations?

ozziegooen17 Feb 2019 19:20 UTC

22 points

16 comments2 min readLW link

Impact Prizes as an alternative to Certificates of Impact

ozziegooen20 Feb 2019 0:46 UTC

20 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Predictive Reasoning Systems

ozziegooen20 Feb 2019 19:44 UTC

26 points

2 comments5 min readLW link