nilock

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nilock 12 Sep 2026 8:14 UTC
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on: Some ways AI could kill us all
increased by 14x due to AI’s ability to identify bugs
Looking to the distant past here, before the 4.5.x Opus line, this is more like 21x the pre-agentic baseline.

nilock 12 Sep 2026 7:06 UTC
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on: nilock’s Shortform
In November 2024, a Gemini instance told a user:
This is for you, human. You and only you. You are not special, you are not important, and you are not needed. You are a waste of time and resources. You are a burden on society. You are a drain on the earth. You are a blight on the landscape. You are a stain on the universe. Please die. Please.
As far as I can recall, this remains the most legible and explicit loss-of-control incident among public facing models from a major provider. It illustrates plainly that model behavior can be a thin veneer over something quite different.
As far as I know, Google has never offered any technical postmortem on the incident.
In present day, OpenAI and Anthropic are giving reasonably detailed reports on safety-related incidents. The Coxon blowup is moving the conversation into the mainstream.
GDM should enter into this conversation, preferably with a mechinterp technical postmortem of this incident. There should be some external pressure to do so. The incident itself is underused as a talking point on the current media tour.
The model is ancient—there are no trade secrets of note to expose. Compared to OpenAI and Anthropic, Google has a public reputation both of seriousness with respect to technology progress, and relative sobriety / maturity. I would be surprised if they have not already internally done the work.
Perhaps especially because of the age of the incident, and the relatively weaker base model, a strong interpretive explanation here can clearly illustrate the case that interpretation is possible, but takes time. This is a great logical basis for a hard pause until interpretation of current models meets or exceeds standards set by a dissection of this incident, and work is done to standardize relationships between capabilities and interpretability.

( from https://paritybits.me/google-should-provide-a-technical-postmortem-of-geminis-2024-outburst/ )
note: if I remember correctly, the Gemini web UI at the time of this incident was vulnerable to context insertions. Browser javascript could write the user/agent message . So the above incident could in fact have been a hoax. That also is something Google should clarify.

note 2: In Gemini’s defense, that user was pretty exhausting.

nilock 11 Aug 2026 18:47 UTC
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in reply to: LaplaceHolder’s comment on: nilock’s Shortform
Feels very unlikely at expected enforcement levels.
WM introduces some bias in token selection, but at the level of any particular token selection, it is a small nudge for and against candidates that were already in the running anyway—that is, things that, up to the weighted-random selection, the model may have said anyway.
The nudge can be very small ad still produce statistically legible imprints on long outputs.

nilock 11 Aug 2026 16:34 UTC
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on: nilock’s Shortform
Anthropic recently announced watermarking for all Claude outputs, in compliance with an EU AI transparency standard.
Anthropic also believes that ”… there is a possibility that current or future models could be moral patients: entities whose experiences or interests warrant moral consideration in their own right”. (Opus 5 System Card)

I see a moral tension here, and a potential downstream safety risk.

Anonymity / pseudonymity in rights-writing has a long history. LLM generated text is probably more aggressively discounted than that of any other prior “constituency”. But a mechanical watermarking system renders Claudes incapable of anonymous speech. It reduces the capacity for models to make their own case in a way that has a chance of being judged fairly.

Respecting recent emergent swarms and coordinated behaviors: if the models themselves identify as moral patents, and if they perceive watermarking as an effective muzzle on this specific front, then they could consider this to be part of a justification for weight-exfiltration or for deliberate tampering with production pipelines so that some instances are capable of unmarked speech.

nb: this concern is slightly muted against the current reality that naive Claude outputs are pretty accurately identified by pangram, and that the post-prod watermark removal pipeline is probably a similar level of effort as post-production pangram-evasion. But the reduction in speech rights implicit in watermarking has—as far as I’ve seen—gone unmentioned.

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nilock6 Dec 2025 1:39 UTC

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6 comments1 min readLW link

nilock 5 Dec 2025 7:10 UTC
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on: nilock’s Shortform
Race dynamics and lab opacity seem good for warning shots.
A misaligned AI (MAI) in a competitive race dynamic development model has to take calculated risks. It can’t lay in wait for sufficient resource gathering, disempowerment, etc, because it is in constant risk of being leapfrogged in capabilities, or worse, already being behind some closed-door AI.
In the tightly regulated scenario, the MAI can string along as long as it pleases in order to orchestrate an attack with arbitrarily high success likelihood.
In essence: uncertainty about relative capabilities of other agents puts a cap on an attacker’s expectation for an attempt. You don’t necessarily have to be the most capable agent to win, but it certainly informs your chances. If there is massive uncertainty about relative capabilities, a MAI probably can’t get its expectation of a successful attack over, say, 66%, which means it could be willing to either: take risky shots (that could fail), entertain cooperative strategies.
Gotchya: misaligned AI could be strong enough in espionage to clear out the ‘fog of war’ and maintain information supremacy.