“impression that more advanced statistics is technical elaboration that doesn’t offer major additional insights”
Why did you have this impression?
Sorry for the off-topic, but I see this a lot in LessWrong (as a casual reader). People seem to focus on textual, deep-sounding, wow-inducing expositions, but often dislike the technicalities, getting hands dirty with actually understanding calculations, equations, formulas, details of algorithms etc (calculations that don’t tickle those wow-receptors that we all have). As if these were merely some minor additions over the really important big picture view. As I see it this movement seems to try to build up a new backbone of knowledge from scratch. But doing this they repeat the mistakes of the past philosophers. For example going for the “deep”, outlook-transforming texts that often give a delusional feeling of “oh now I understand the whole world”. It’s easy to have wow-moments without actually having understood something new.
So yes, PCA is useful and most statistics and maths and computer science is useful for understanding stuff. But then you swing to the other extreme and say “ideas from advanced statistics are essential for reasoning about the world, even on a day-to-day level”. Tell me how exactly you’re planning to use PCA day-to-day? I think you may mean you want to use some “insight” that you gained from it. But I’m not sure what that would be. It seems to be a cartoonish distortion that makes it fit into an ideology.
Anyway, mainstream machine learning is very useful. And it’s usually much more intricate and complicated than to be able to produce a deep everyday insight out of it. I think the sooner you lose the need for everything to resonate deeply or have a concise insightful summary, the better.
I prefer public discussions. First, I’m a computer science student who took courses in machine learning, AI, wrote theses in these areas (nothing exceptional), I enjoy books like Thinking Fast and Slow, Black Swan, Pinker, Dawkins, Dennett, Ramachandran etc. So the topics discussed here are also interesting to me. But the atmosphere seems quite closed and turning inwards.
I feel similarities to reddit’s Red Pill community. Previously “ignorant” people feel the community has opened a new world to them, they lived in darkness before, but now they found the “Way” (“Bayescraft”) and all this stuff is becoming an identity for them.
Sorry if it’s offensive, but I feel as if many people had no success in the “real world” matters and invented a fiction where they are the heroes by having joined some great organization much higher above the general public, who are just irrational automata still living in the dark.
I dislike the heavy use of insider terminology that make communication with “outsiders” about these ideas quite hard because you get used to referring to these things by the in-group terms, so you get kind of isolated from your real-life friends as you feel “they won’t understand, they’d have to read so much”. When actually many of the concepts are not all that new and could be phrased in a way that the “uninitiated” can also get it.
There are too many cross references in posts and it keeps you busy with the site longer than necessary. It seems that people try to prove they know some concept by using the jargon and including links to them. Instead, I’d prefer authors who actively try to minimize the need for links and jargon.
I also find the posts quite redundant. They seem to be reiterations of the same patterns in very long prose with people’s stories intertwined with the ideas, instead of striving for clarity and conciseness. Much of it feels a lot like self-help for people with derailed lives who try to engineer their life (back) to success. I may be wrong but I get a depressed vibe from reading the site too long. It may also be because there is no lighthearted humor or in-jokes or “fun” or self-irony at all. Maybe because the members are just like that in general (perhaps due to mental differences, like being on the autism spectrum, I’m not a psychiatrist).
I can see that people here are really smart and the comments are often very reasonable. And it makes me wonder why they’d regard a single person such as Yudkowsky in such high esteem as compared to established book authors or academics or industry people in these areas. I know there has been much discussion about cultishness, and I think it goes a lot deeper than surface issues. LessWrong seems to be quite isolated and distrusting towards the mainstream. Many people seem to have read stuff first from Yudkowsky, who often does not reference earlier works that basically state the same stuff, so people get the impression that all or most of the ideas in “The Sequences” come from him. I was quite disappointed several times when I found the same ideas in mainstream books. The Sequences often depict the whole outside world as dumber than it is (straw man tactics, etc).
Another thing is that discussion is often too meta (or meta-meta). There is discussion on Bayes theorem and math principles but no actual detailed, worked out stuff. Very little actual programming for example. I’d expect people to create github projects, IPython notebooks to show some examples of what they are talking about. Much of the meta-meta-discussion is very opinion-based because there is no immediate feedback about whether someone is wrong or right. It’s hard to test such hypotheses. For example, in this post I would have expected an example dataset and showing how PCA can uncover something surprising. Otherwise it’s just floating out there although it matches nicely with the pattern that “some math concept gave me insight that refined my rationality”. I’m not sure, maybe these “rationality improvements” are sometimes illusions.
I also don’t get why the rationality stuff is intermixed with friendly AI and cryonics and transhumanism. I just don’t see why these belong that much together. I find them too speculative and detached from the “real world” to be the central ideas. I realize they are important, but their prevalence could also be explained as “escapism” and it promotes the discussion of untestable meta things that I mentioned above, never having to face reality. There is much talk about what evidence is but not much talk that actually presents evidence.
I needed to develop a sort of immunity against topics like acausal trade that I can’t fully specify how they are wrong, but they feel wrong and are hard to translate to practical testable statements, and it just messes with my head in the wrong way.
And of course there is also that secrecy around and hiding of “certain things”.
That’s it. This place may just not be for me, which is fine. People can have their communities in the way they want. You just asked for elaboration.