I need to give a date soon for people making travel plans.
So I’ll give it till tomorrow then count up your date choices, giving extra consideration to those who otherwise can’t make it. So far it’s...
1 vote for Thursday (Patri) 1 for Saturday (Maksym) 4 for Sunday (Ulrik, Nazgulnarsil, Z.M. and an emailer) but another emailer can’t make it on Sunday as they’re flying out early. 1 for either Saturday or Sunday (Sterling) 1 for having 2 meetings (Anna)
Update: another emailer who definately wants to come is flying away on Sunday lunchtime.
Adding the 2 who can’t make Sunday afternoon or Thursday, that makes 3 for Saturday evening. I’d like everyone to be able to come, so I vote Saturday too.
Saturday wins by 4 votes to 3.
So… where shall we go? I suggest somewhere central, not too far from the Summit and the Train Station.
Ben, please read the comments :)
I hope you can come, but I hope you can appreciate it would be unfair to change the date now for several reasons. It will be following the Summit you’re going to, are you sure you can’t make it?
I don’t like Saturday for the following reasons:
It was picked as more chose it, including 2 who’d otherwise be excluded.
1) It will be easy to round up a bunch of people for dinner and discussion after the summit is over without any online correspondence...
But then OB readers who aren’t coming to the Summit would be excluded.
2) My brain will be fried after listening to all the speakers...
All else equal I’d rather meet on a fresh day, but I’d rather not exclude people just to feel refreshed. I’ll find caffeine.
the email I received from him had only eight names on it.
That excludes responders from this blog.
My proposed solution: get everyone’s email and move this conversation to that medium
I’ll do this if everyone wants, I just didn’t think everyone would want to use or get a Reply All for every comment.
Anyone who wants an update when the meetup status changes, email me for an exclusive report.
Thanks to everyone who’s responded so far!
Someone mailed me worried if the Singunality Summit registration fee is relevant to our meeting. Don’t worry. While the Summit is excellent value for money and for a hugely vital cause for the future of humanity, ours is an informal gathering and nothing to do the Institure. It’s a gathering of aspiring rationalists, many of us just happen to be Singularitarians too.
John, jeans and t-shirt should be OK as long as it’s not too scruffy.
Thanks again to all respondents.
Our reservation is now for 28. If a few more turn up that’s OK too, though we’d have to squeeze in a bit if it’s more than 30. We’ll be in a private room of our own next to the main restaurant, on 3 long tables close together.
Just walk in the Sainte Claire Hotel, turn left when you see the menu by the door, and give them my name.
Someone asked about parking. There’s quite a bit nearby, they have valet parking also.
See you tomorrow!
Kurzweil would be proud of us. We saw zero initial response meta-exponentially grow into 48 people.
Thanks for coming, hope you had interesting chats, exchanged a few useful memes and maybe made a few contacts. I only wish my jet lag had let me stay longer.
Would you discourage, where resources exist to find alternative strategies, use of any random element in choosing samples for statistical hypothesis testing?
Sorry I’m late… is no-one curious given the age of the universe why the 3 races are so close technologically? (Great filter? Super-advanced races have prime directive? Simulated experiment? Novas only happen if 3 connecting stars recently had their first gates be gates out? …)
Eliezer if you’re reading this, amazing story. I’m worried though about your responses to so many commenters (generally smarter & more rational than the most humans) with widely different preferences and values to what you see as right in this story and the fun sequence. I’m not saying your values are wrong, I’m saying you seem to have very optimistic models/estimates of where many human value systems go when fed lots of knowledge/rationality/good arguments. If so, I hope CEV doesn’t depend on it.
If your model is causing you to be constantly surprised, then...
Simon Cowell now too, apparently. No, I don’t read the Daily Mail!
Till then, as the code’s forked from the Reddit base, here’s their help which tells you have the default system works.
It says you get Karma by writing submissions which pander to the whims of the majori^H^H^H^H^Hare popular, and it’s used to upgrade your post-Singularity consciousness. Hope this helps :)
I am 95% confident that calibration tests are good tests for a very important aspect of rationality, and would encourage everyone to try a few.
Make them catch the bug. Leave the reader enthusiastic to learn more. That’s the #1 thing that would make me want to buy it for others, being confident what they get from it won’t be a flash in the pan.
If your book makes less money for you than it’s bibliography makes for Amazon, I’d call it a success.
Marshall, you don’t need to be good at the question subjects, just as long as you don’t think you’re good when you’re not. Calibration tests aren’t about how many of the questions you can get right, they test if you’re over (or under) confident about your answers. They tend to use obscure questions which few people are likely to know for sure what the answers are.
Apparently it’s just for people whose submissions you want to follow, so their usernames will appear highlighted & you can read just their submissions here.
Interesting point. Does anyone know of any evidence about how well calibration test results match overconfidence in important real-life decisions? I’d expect it would give a good indication, but has anyone actually tested it?
Thanks for the reponses so far. Pioneer responders Nick Tarleton, Z. M. Davis & Michael Vassar, have you any place/time preferences?
In 4 emails so far preferences have been expressed for Sunday, for meeting somewhere near the train station, and for meeting not too far from Santa Clara.