I’m on a self-improvement binge (for about 15 years at this point) and though I don’t call myself Christian, to sleep I recite The Lord’s Prayer phrase by phrase, meditating on the meaning of each phrase—why it’s there, what the intended effect is, whether I agree, and how I might do that thing if I agree. Stressing here that I am not praying: I am considering the meaning of one of the most widespread human mantras in my corner of the world.
If that doesn’t work, my next step is to pray (again, I am not Christian—that’s not what this is about) that everyone will do the right thing, whatever that is. Sometimes I direct it at current events, sometimes generally.
I think that it’s the concentration that puts me to sleep, and the effects on my behavior and attitude are bonus points.
Because the system is massively nontransparent, we have to go on what we see. I believe that for some time we have not been following that rule. What the war in Ukraine has more visibly revealed to us is that Putin has no army, no navy, and no air force. Each of these is poorly trained, badly maintained and non functional. I think the only logical conclusion to draw is that Putin has no nuclear force as well. Given the state of his military, the obvious and logical conclusion is that if Russia has rockets they are sitting rusting in flooded silos and that such nuclear weapons as might have once existed are in ruin.
Putin’s system allowed everyone under him to become more corrupt and steal more. There’s absolutely no reason to think that this hasn’t happened everywhere, including in the nuclear weapon sector of the Russian military.
There may be, as some have pointed out, enough to put together a dirty bomb. I’m not sure they have the discipline to do even that.
I think a nuclear confrontation from Putin is highly unlikely, and this doesn’t even bring in the question whether anyone under him would do anything he demanded, since it’s apparent that for quite time they have been telling him one thing and doing another.