Suppose the IRS requires 100 pages of paperwork per employee. This used to take 10 hours. Now with GPT-4, as a thought experiment, let’s say it takes 1 hour.
The long run result might be 500 pages of more complicated paperwork that takes 10 hours even with GPT-4, while accomplishing nothing. That still will take time. It is not so easy or fast to come up with 400 more pages. I’d assume that would take at least a decade.
Would human effort really go up in this scenario? Why would the humans be needed to help with the paperwork? It would just require more effort by AI to complete.
I think the best returns you can make on transformative AI are call options on AI companies. I think the market is underpricing these in general. Particularly, I think that there will be events where the market starts recognizing AI into their valuation of companies and their stocks go up a lot in a very short period of time.