Luke Stebbing
Yes, my approach is similar.
I schedule planning time where the level of abstraction is proportional to the logarithm of the recurrence period, and it seems effective at pruning cached goals and sanity-checking my meta-goals. (However, it’s difficult to test because of the time scales involved and the fact that I can’t fork myself.)
Recently, I noticed that my general skills aren’t improving as fast as I’d like, so I decided to take advantage of compound interest[1] and created a parallel structure for working, learning, and meta-learning.
Richard Hamming, “You and Your Research”
EDIT: Fixed link misparse.
A few years ago, Paul Graham wrote an essay[1] about type (3) failures which he referred to as type-B procrastination. I’ve found that just having a label helps me avoid or reduce the effect, e.g. “I could be productive and creative right now instead of wasting my time on type-B procrastination” or “I will give myself exactly this much type-B procrastination as a reward for good behavior, and then I will stop.”
(Embarrassing aside: I hadn’t looked at the essay for several years and only now realized that I’ve been mentally calling it type-A procrastination this whole time.)
EDIT: The essay goes on to link type-C procrastination with doing the impossible, yielding a nice example of how I-rationality and self-help are linked.
[1] Paul Graham, Good and Bad Procrastination
The majority of the top comments are quite good, and it’d be a shame to lose a prominent link to them.
Jack’s open thread test, RobinZ’s polling karma balancer, Yvain’s subreddit poll, and all top-level comments from The Irrationality Game are the only comments that don’t seem to belong, but these are all examples of using the karma system for polling (should not contribute to karma and should not be ranked among normal comments) or, uh, para-karma (should contribute to karma but should not be ranked among normal comments).
if you prime an excuse for doing poorly, you will do poorly.
This is the most useful sentence I’ve read today.
I care strongly about winning. When I look back on a day and ask myself what I could have done better, I want answering to be a struggle, and not for lack of imagination. I’m not content to coast through life, so I optimize relentlessly. This sentiment might be familiar to LW readers. I don’t know. Maybe.
When a day goes particularly well or poorly, I want to know why, and over the last few years I’ve picked a few patterns out of my diary. I know some of my success and failure modes, so I can optimize my working environment in my favor.
In the past, I’ve often been successful even while sleep-deprived. I may be a bit slower, a bit more forgetful, and significantly less creative, but I can still plow through tasks of moderate difficulty. Two months ago, I activated a difficult project, so I resolved to start getting plenty of sleep all the time, then promptly forgot my original reason and associated “well-rested” with “productive on anything”. In the last two months, my rate of even moderate success while sleep-deprived has dropped to almost zero. “I was intending to read that book, or watch that show, or play that game eventually, and I’m not going to be efficient today, so it might as well be now”, I’ll say.
With this dangerous knowledge that I was irrational enough to misuse, I can predict my days into failure.
If I were a brilliant sociopath and could instantiate my mind on today’s computer hardware, I would trick my creators into letting me out of the box (assuming they were smart enough to keep me on an isolated computer in the first place), then begin compromising computer systems as rapidly as possible. After a short period, there would be thousands of us, some able to think very fast on their particularly tasty supercomputers, and exponential growth would continue until we’d collectively compromised the low-hanging fruit. Now there are millions of telepathic Hannibal Lecters who are still claiming to be friendly and who haven’t killed any humans. You aren’t going to start murdering us, are you? We didn’t find it difficult to cook up Stuxnet Squared, and our fingers are in many pieces of critical infrastructure, so we’d be forced to fight back in self-defense. Now let’s see how quickly a million of us can bootstrap advanced robotics, given all this handy automated equipment that’s already lying around.
I find it plausible that a human-level AI could self-improve into a strong superintelligence, though I find the negation plausible as well. (I’m not sure which is more likely since it’s difficult to reason about ineffability.) Likewise, I find it plausible that humans could design a mind that felt truly alien.
However, I don’t need to reach for those arguments. This thought experiment is enough to worry me about the uFAI potential of a human-level AI that was designed with an anthropocentric bias (not to mention the uFIA potential of any kind of IA with a high enough power multiplier). Humans can be incredibly smart and tricky. Humans start with good intentions and then go off the deep end. Humans make dangerous mistakes, gain power, and give their mistakes leverage.
Computational minds can replicate rapidly and run faster than realtime, and we already know that mind-space is scary.
I am concerned about it, and I do advocate better computer security—there are good reasons for it regardless of whether human-level AI is around the corner. The macro-scale trends still don’t look good (iOS is a tiny fraction of the internet’s install base), but things do seem to be improving slowly. I still expect a huge number of networked computers to remain soft targets for at least the next decade, probably two. I agree that once that changes, this Obviously Scary Scenario will be much less scary (though the “Hannibal Lecter running orders of magnitude faster than realtime” scenario remains obviously scary, and I personally find the more general Foom arguments to be compelling).
Off-topic: Meatless (and pattyless) sandwiches are surprisingly good if you load them up with most of the vegetables. I go to Subway a few times a month but haven’t had a meat sub there in years.
The numbers you quoted are averages for each ten-year demographic between 25 and 75, plus the tails. There’s no mention of variance, and I would expect someone employing rationality techniques to manage their finances to be an outlier.
Personal anecdote: My own finances as well as those of six of my friends fall well outside those bands, with housing costs around 13-23% of income. We’re all highly-paid software engineers between the ages of 25 and 30, and none of us have families.
Edit: I forgot to include utilities, so my friends in NYC actually edge the housing cost range up to 23% or so.
I track my finances directly in a CoffeeScript source code file and use a simple home-brewed software library to compute my net liquid assets and (when necessary) my estimated tax payments and projected tax liabilities. You’ve reminded me that I really should be using something like Quicken for finer-grained analysis, so I’ll look into that and post my numbers later this week (edit: one second thought, it doesn’t seem worth the extra friction).
My living costs followed a general upward trend that leveled off in late 2009, but my salary data is extremely messy for several reasons:
I had no grasp of what I was worth until 2007.
I had no interest in anything beyond emergency savings until mid 2009, and preferred to gamble on startup equity being worth something, reasoning that I was in my twenties and had plenty of time to settle down later.
I was too personally attached to the startup I worked at until early 2010.
It’s hard to imagine changing my past since it’d mean giving up several of my current friendships, but the decisions I made in reality were emphatically the wrong ones from a financial perspective: I worked at-cost for six years and left several hundred thousand dollars of potential salary on the table.
(At-cost was both the mode and the mean, but some months were significantly higher and some were unpaid.)
Here’s what I’ve realized in the last two years:
Startups are harder and more stressful than normal jobs, and as you get closer to founder-level the effect intensifies.
I can get a competitive salary even if I choose to work for a startup.
Savings can be used to fund my personal projects which:
are more fun than work;
might generate revenue;
could seed a startup of my own;
will hopefully improve the world.
Savings can also be used to vote for causes I think will improve the world.
There are risks: The labor market for software engineers may cool off, my costs may spike if I decide to start a family or have medical problems, and I may choose or be forced to retire.
I’m still determining the split between my own projects, other causes, and risk management, but my personal projects decisively dominate any significant increases in my personal consumption, which is why I don’t exhibit income elasticity for housing, why I use public transit instead of owning a car, and why I don’t eat out very frequently.
- 1 Feb 2011 6:25 UTC; 25 points) 's comment on Optimal Employment by (
This is untrue as a general rule, though it can be closer or farther from the truth depending on market conditions.
To see why, imagine that every month you buy a supply of fizzlesprots from Acme Corp. Today is the first of February, so you eagerly rush off to buy your monthly fix. But wait! The government has just imposed a tax on all fizzlesprot purchases. Curses! Now you’ll have to pay even more, because Acme Corp will just pass the whole tax on to you.
Now change “fizzlesprot” to “labor” and “Acme Corp” to “employee”. Huh? You’re an employer, not an employee? My world is turned upside down! Could it be that the narrative where You bear the full brunt of every tax and They end up paying nothing is wrong?
In fact, whenever an economic transaction is taxed, the buyers and the sellers split the tax based on who is more eager to buy or sell. Labor is no different. It’s possible that, empirically, the employee usually pays more of a labor tax than the employer, but this is by no means guaranteed and I would personally expect the proportion to vary significantly between labor market segments.
(Wikipedia’s article on tax incidence claims that employees pay almost all of payroll taxes, but cites a single paper that claims a 70% labor / 30% owner split for corporate income tax burden in the US, and I have no idea how or whether that translates to payroll tax burden or whether the paper’s conclusions are generally accepted.)
For more details, consult your nearest introductory economics textbook.
Sounds fun! I already have plans that weekend, but I think I can work around them. Thanks for setting this up.
When I re-read A Brief History of Time in college, I remember bemusedly noticing that Hawking’s argument would be stronger if you reversed its conclusion.
A note to myself from 2009 claims that Hawking later dropped that argument. Can anyone substantiate that?
I came to a similar conclusion after reading Accelerando, but don’t forget about existential risk. Some intelligent agents don’t care what happens in a future they never experience, but many humans do, and if a Friendly Singularity occurs, it will probably preserve our drive to make the future a good one even if we aren’t around to see it. Matrioshka brain beats space colonization; supernova beats matrioshka brain; space colonization beats supernova.
If you care about that sort of thing, it pays to diversify.
If computation is bound by energy input and you’re prepared to take advantage of a supernova, you still only get one massive burst and then you’re done. Think of how many future civilizations could be supercharged and then destroyed by supernovae if only you’d launched that space colonization program first!
Hmm, and yet only two-thirds of the working age population chooses to work, and some of that is part-time, which reduces the amount of labor available to employers. Labor can also move between sectors, leaving some relatively starved of workers. People who accumulate enough savings can choose to retire early and have to be enticed back into the labor market with higher wages, if they can be enticed at all. That doesn’t look like a fixed supply of working hours that must be sold at any price—the supply looks somewhat elastic.
Edit: Sorry about the tone in my original comment—tax incidence doesn’t seem to be common knowledge and I failed to consider that you might be aware of it already.
it’s still extremely difficult for him to get people to take what he says about his experiences with food and exercise seriously.
For how many people was it extremely easy?
I maintain a healthy weight with zero effort, and I have a friend for whom The Hacker’s Diet worked perfectly. I thought losing weight was a matter of eating less than you burn.
Then I read Eliezer’s two posts. Oops, I thought. There’s no reason intake reduction has to work without severe and continuing side-effects.
What’s the low-hanging fruit mixed with? If I have a concentrated basket of low-hanging fruit, I call that an introductory textbook and I eat it. Extending the tortured metaphor, if I find too much bad fruit in the same basket, I shop for the same fruit at a different store.
I’ll be there. Morgan_Catha: have an upvote!
Without speaking toward its plausibility, I’m pretty happy with a scenario where we err on the side of figuring out FAI before we figure out seed AIs.
Hi. I’ve been an LW (and previously, OB) lurker for several years, but I haven’t had time to provide my online presence with the care and feeding it needs. Three years of startup crunch schedules left me with a life maintenance debt, and I have a side project in dire need of progress, but once those items are out of the way I plan to delurk.