Epistemic status: non-expert, above average confidence
Regarding current jobs, I think that there’s an inherent resistance to completely ceding current work to any non-human agent. But once that dam is broken, I think there’s significantly less resistance to giving NEW jobs to non-human agents.
Something about a whole range of people feeling protective over a practice adds resistance. Without that populace to protest and (importantly) others above them in an organizational chart who have also performed that work with some level of pride, it will be very easy to just make a comparison; what does the job better? Who does the job cheaper?
So, if we get past the AGI stage, I can see a maximum of 10-20 years of human work holdouts. But younger people wouldn’t want to work.
This all assumes we’ve somehow avoided Doom Scenario, of course, and have managed to linger in the AGI stage.
Epistemic status: non-expert, above average confidence
Regarding current jobs, I think that there’s an inherent resistance to completely ceding current work to any non-human agent. But once that dam is broken, I think there’s significantly less resistance to giving NEW jobs to non-human agents.
Something about a whole range of people feeling protective over a practice adds resistance. Without that populace to protest and (importantly) others above them in an organizational chart who have also performed that work with some level of pride, it will be very easy to just make a comparison; what does the job better? Who does the job cheaper?
So, if we get past the AGI stage, I can see a maximum of 10-20 years of human work holdouts. But younger people wouldn’t want to work.
This all assumes we’ve somehow avoided Doom Scenario, of course, and have managed to linger in the AGI stage.