Let’s say that TDT agents can be divided into two categories, TDT-A and TDT-B, based on a single random bit added to their source code in advance. Then TDT-A can take the strategy of always picking the first box in Problem 2, and TDT-B can always pick the second box.
Now, if you’re a TDT agent being offered the problem; with the aforementioned strategy, there’s a 50% chance that the simulated agent is different than you, netting you $1 million. This also narrows down the advantage of the CDT agent—now they only have a 50% chance of winning the money, which is equal to yours.
I had much the same experience as Sinai. Personally, though, I didn’t bother to try this test after having already been biased by Eliezer’s opinion on the matter.
Also, I feel that the uselessness of the linked pro-guilt site hurts the overall experiment too much. I know it wasn’t translated at the time, but using the Massei report as Sinai did makes the test much more effective.