Thanks for compiling your thoughts here! There’s a lot to digest, but I’d like to offer a relevant intuition I have specifically about the difficulty of alignment.
Whatever method we use to verify the safety of a particular AI will likely be extremely underdetermined. That is, we could verify that the AI is safe for some set of plausible circumstances but that set of verified situations would be much, much smaller than the set of situations it could encounter “in the wild”.
The AI model, reality, and our values are all high entropy, and our verification/safety methods are likely to be comparatively low entropy. The set of AIs that pass our tests will have members whose properties haven’t been fully constrained.
This isn’t even close to a complete argument, but I’ve found it helpful as an intuition fragment.
Yeah, I also doubt that it will be the primary way of using AI. I’m just saying that AI avatar tech could exist soon and that it will change how the public views AI.
ChatGPT itself is in a bit of a similar situation. It changed the way many people think of AI, even for those who don’t find it particularly useful.