It’s useful even if you aren’t a professional software engineer. I taught myself some basic programming a few years ago and used it to automate tedious reports and processes for my job (which allowed me to spend time on less urgent but more interesting projects).
“What would a frequentist analysis of the developing war look like?”
Why is it necessary to assign a probability to the outcome of a war?
For example, someone paying attention to the news on 2/21/22 would have seen Putin’s speech where he declared independence for the Donbas regions/laid out motivations for an invasion and thought to themselves “Russia will probably invade Ukraine in the near future. Satellite images show nearly 200k Russian troops surrounding Ukraine’s Eastern border. Russia’s military forces vastly outnumber Ukraine’s on land and in air, so Russia is in a good position to succeed. However, the outcome of war also depends on a number of intangible factors such as command and control, logistics, and morale, so Russia’s prospects for success remain to be seen.” Personally I find this kind of analysis more reasonable than “P(Russia success) = .75. Here’s the math.”
Thanks! Do I still need to enter an email?
“Today I’m here to tell you: this is actually happening and it will last a week. You will get a payout if you give us a PayPal/ETH address or name a charity of your choosing.”
How do we give you the name of a charity? I only see fields to enter a PayPal and email address on the payment info page.
The spread of opinions seems narrow compared to what I would expect. OP makes some bold predictions in his post. I see more debate over less controversial claims all of the time.
Sorry, but what do aliens have to do with AI?
Thanks! You explanation was helpful, and I appreciate you acknowledging the amount of time and effort it takes for a newcomer to read these posts! :)
Thanks for the suggestions! :)
Thanks for responding to my comment—I appreciate you clarifying OP’s points. I’ve been working through some of the sequences on AI risk, and I think I have a better understanding of why people are concerned. I also took a moment to look up MIRI—first of all, wow, it must be interesting to work in an area like AI alignment which (if I understand correctly) is at the intersection of so many fields like math, psychology, programming, and philosophy!
I had a couple of questions after browsing MIRI’s website—I hope you don’t mind me asking.
What kinds of tools are you guys working on to make general AI systems safer?
Since general AI has yet to be developed, how does MIRI test its tools and research?
Is MIRI working to develop any AI systems?
A funny coincidence—I think my fiance has a friend who works for an AI research lab owned by Google. Maybe I’ll ask about his expectations on the future of AI.
So AI will destroy the planet and there’s no hope for survival?
Why is everyone here in agreement that AI will inevitably kill off humanity and destroy the planet?
Sorry I’m new to LessWrong and clicked on this post because I recognized the author’s name from the series on rationality.
You guys have an odd sense of humor
Is this an April fools joke?
Glad you found him—hope he’s okay now and has a safe place to stay.
That is my understanding too (although I only became curious about military leadership structures after Russia invaded Ukraine, so I’m no expert lol). US generals operate at a safe distance from the fighting and delegate decision making power to lower rank officers.
Apparently the Russian military employs fewer junior officers. I’m not sure if this is by shortage or design, but my understanding is that issues typically resolved by junior officers must sent up the chain of command.
I’ve also read speculation that Russian generals are entering front lines in an effort to boost low moral.
We don’t know how many Russian generals are in Ukraine. Russia has not made that information public.
What you can look at is data from past wars. Twelve US generals were killed in Vietnam over a period of idk how many years.
Vietnam casualties by rank: http://www.americanwarlibrary.com/vietnam/vwc4.htm
A major Russian general is equivalent in rank to a US brigade general (grade 07 in the first table).
The frequency of Russian generals who have died over the period of one month seems unusually high in comparison. FWIW Russia’s military is said to have a top-heavy org structure.
I didn’t know that about South Korea—thanks for bringing it up. After reading your comment, I wondered if I’m overly optimistic about Zelensky’s integrity and commitment to democratic values. I try to give people the benefit of the doubt, and I’m willing to do the same with Zelensky—for now. I’m not ready to become pessimistic about this law yet, but my thinking has shifted away from optimism and towards something more neutral. Thank you!
“On 3⁄20, Zelenskyy bans activities of pro-Russian political parties until war is over. This does not seem like either great optics or like it is good for Ukrainian democracy, and no I wouldn’t have known this (at least right away) without a Russian-oriented source. He also combined all the television stations and forced them to broadcast only State Media, all in ways that sure seem like they shut out the opposition. I’m pretty sad about this. Not terribly shocked, mind, but sad.”
I mean, Russia invaded Ukraine with soldiers, missiles, tanks, and heavy artillery and is aiming to control Ukrainian cities and surround the capital with a long ass convoy. Russia is taking freedom away from Ukrainians. Given these circumstances, I probably wouldn’t worry about the banning of pro-Russian political parties within Ukraine unless the ban continues after the war is over.
understandingwar.org has been publishing daily assessments of Russia’s military operations. You might be using them as a resource already, but here’s a link in case not. I’ve been using them as a resource for information-
Thanks for the suggestions! I’m so excited to have found this site. There’s so much to read. I feel like a kid in a candy store : )
To clarify how I got here—I expanded my google search from “techno feudalism” to “techno neo feudalism” and landed on this page: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fdFZqmyQBJvx7d5j6/how-would-you-go-about-testing-a-political-theory-like