I generally agree that the autofac era seems like a logical next step. However, it seems it would dramatically accelerate capital consolidation, leading to an unprecedented gradual disempowerment.
In such an economy, a decisive resource advantage becomes equivalent to long-term global dominance. If this consolidation completes before ASI arrives, the first ASI will likely be built by an actor facing zero constraints on its deployment, which is a direct path to x-risk. This makes the prospect of a stable, “happy” pre-ASI autofac period seem highly doubtful.
(Though it’s possible the dominant actor would choose to halt the race, that seems far from a given, even with total dominance.)
As I have mentioned, a resource advantage is critical in such an economy, which is driven by widespread automation.
When agents unite, it eventually leads to the formation of an “equilibrium” that is actually unstable. Its imperfection will only be magnified by autofac, given that humans are not a significant resource. In other words, one group will ultimately become dominant in the long run. Since the group also had an initial imbalance, the larger agent will eventually gain a decisive advantage.
Of course, one can imagine a situation where groups can find a balance and constantly counterbalance each other, but from historical examples, we see that this is unlikely. Multipolar systems tend toward simplification, and pacts do not last long. It does not matter how many these groups are or how many agents are inside them: an imbalance will always exist, which automation will only amplify in the long term.