Thanks for weighing in, Elo. I have learned from this that sometimes providing a concrete example for an abstract problem can be so distracting as to almost completely obscure the problem.
Have you tried bayesian updates?
Yes, this has been the crux of my difficulty. I have done my best to follow Bayes Theorem, my prior probability is not a strong factor (I would not be exceptionally shocked one way or the other on this particular issue, so I put my prior probability at 60% for one side), and when I get to evidence updates, I basically only have two decent pieces of evidence “Scientific organizations X, Y, and Z (of C credibility) hold this position” and “Scientific organization A and B (of D credibility) hold this other position.” And then I have “The argumentation for this position is more flawed than this other position.”
That seems to be just about as far as I can get, insulated from direct observation or—as you recommend—experimentation. So I am able to calculate my posterior probability and have some confidence in my approach, but I can’t help but feel unsatisfied about the scope of evidence that brought me to change my position.
Also:
GMO has been around for ~10-20 years now. We are yet to see negatives of the scale predicted by the opposition to GMO. Waiting long enough has yielded evidence of absence of risk.
That is strong evidence that GMO does not have observable risks within 10-20 years of adoption, but it is considerably weaker evidence about what GMO adoption looks like after 30, 40, 50 years or a lifetime.
That’s ridiculous: whenever I want to comment, I always observe that I am reading 4-year-old arguments and keep on scrolling.