When I read point 7 for your proposed tools, my immediate question was “How much more likely am I to complete a task if I conduct the simulation?” My initial answer was “something like three times more likely!” But that was type 1 thinking; I was failing to recognize that I still had a 14% chance of completing the task without the simulation. The increase is actually 193%.
I thought that was a nice little example of what you had been discussing in the first half of the article.
When I read point 7 for your proposed tools, my immediate question was “How much more likely am I to complete a task if I conduct the simulation?” My initial answer was “something like three times more likely!” But that was type 1 thinking; I was failing to recognize that I still had a 14% chance of completing the task without the simulation. The increase is actually 193%.
I thought that was a nice little example of what you had been discussing in the first half of the article.