It seems to me that it would be better to view the question as “is this frame the best one for person X?” rather than “is this frame the best one?”
Though, I haven’t fully read either of your posts, so excuse any mistakes/confusion.
Jack R(Jack Ryan)
Karma: 307
Redwood Research is hiring for several roles
Some of the best rationality essays
Game that might improve research productivity
My Productivity Tips and Systems
[Linkpost] Can lab-grown brains become conscious?
[Question] When is positive self-talk not worth it due to self-delusion?
[Question] What time in your life were you the most productive at learning and/or thinking and why?
What are some of the “various things” you have in mind here? It seems possible to me that something like “AI alignment testing” is straightforwardly upstream of what players want, but maybe you were thinking of something else
One thing is that it seems like they are trying to build some of the world’s largest language models (“state of the art models”)
Re: 1, I think it may be important to note that adoption has gotten quicker (e.g. as visualized in Figure 1 here; linking this instead of the original source since you might find other parts of the article interesting). Does this update you, or were you already taking this into account?
[Question] Have you noticed costs of being anticipatory?
the genome can’t directly make us afraid of death
It’s not necessarily direct, but in case you aren’t aware of it, prepared learning is a relevant phenomenon,since apparently the genome does predispose us to certain fears
I don’t know how good of a fit you would be, but have you considered applying to Redwood Research?
Isn’t the worst case one in which the AI optimizes exactly against human values?
MIRI doesn’t have good reasons to support the claim of almost certain doom
I recently asked Eliezer why he didn’t suspect ELK to be helpful, and it seemed that one of his major reasons was that Paul was “wrongly” excited about IDA. It seems that at this point in time, neither Paul nor Eliezer are excited about IDA, but Eliezer got to the conclusion first. Although, the IDA-bearishness may be for fundamentally different reasons—I haven’t tried to figure that out yet.Have you been taking this into account re: your ELK bullishness? Obviously, this sort of point should be ignored in favor of object-level arguments about ELK, but to be honest, ELK is taking me a while to digest, so for me that has to wait.
Random tip: If you want to restrict apps etc on your iPhone but not know the Screen Time pin, I recommend the following simple system which allows you to not know the password but unlock restrictions easily when needed:
Ask a friend to write a 4 digit pin in a small note book (which is dedicated only for this pin)
Ask them to punch in the pin to your phone when setting the Screen Time password
Keep the notebook in your backpack and never look inside of it, ever
If you ever need your phone unlocked, you can walk up to someone, even a stranger, show them the notebook and ask them to punch in the pin to your phone
The system works because having a dedicated physical object that you commit to never look inside is surprisingly doable, for some reason.
We are very likely not going to miss out on alignment by a 2x productivity boost, that’s not how things end up in the real world. We’ll either solve alignment or miss by a factor of >10x.
Why is this true?
Aren’t turned off by perceived arrogance
One hypothesis I’ve had is that people with more MIRI-like views tend to be more arrogant themselves. A possible mechanism is that the idea that the world is going to end and that they are the only ones who can save is appealing in a way that shifts their views on certain questions and changes the way they think about AI (e.g. they need less explanation that they are some of the most important people ever, so they spend less time considering why AI might go well by default).
[ETA: In case it wasn’t clear, I am positing subconscious patterns correlated with arrogance that lead to MIRI-like views]
Maybe Carl meant to link this one