This is far from a comprehensive survey, though I think it shows that the net impact of technological changes is at least often and plausibly negative over the short term, and this changes to positive later on.
I don’t think the above examples demonstrate this, because they don’t provide a sense of the scale of the harm, nor do they weigh near-term benefits against near-term harms. Almost all technology has some harms? Refrigeration created CFCs. Antibiotics led to antimicrobial resistance. However, these technologies are widely considered to have been beneficial, even short-term.
The premise of your post is interesting, but the examples don’t convince me.
Nice post! Why do you think more people are becoming force multipliers as opposed to working directly on AI safety? It seems to me (rough guess) that far more people work directly on things like technical alignment?