Unless you can prove that this is still far more probable than what I described which would mean that, most of your conscious time would be spent in conditions similar to our current conditions right now.
So, are you talking here about your and my current conscious experience, or what continuations of our conscious experience will tend to look like past the point at which we would typically die in baseline reality? If you’re referring to what we’re experiencing right now, that is a relatively “normal” human life, then I think most of the probability mass for that experience is either on (a) relatively “normal” instantiations or (b) possibly simulations, but actual simulations on a computer arising from a “normal” causal history, not Boltzmann brains. Now if you’re thinking of possible continuations of our experience past what would normally be our biological death in “baseline” reality, then those would have their probability mass concentrated on scenario (b), simulations on computers arising from a simple causal history(perhaps run by aliens, or future humanity, or an AI built by either).
So, basically, once you are dead, I think it is far more likely that you will be instantiated again in broken circumstances rather than in normal ones
I think you’re conflating subjective time and objective time. There is no 1:1 relationship between your internal subjective “timeline” and time in the external universe. So there’s no reason to expect you to be instantiated “again” after your biological death; rather, there exist some weird possible continuations of your experience somewhere else in the multiverse, which would mostly be emulations with a simple causal origin.
Remember, “it all adds up to normality”. The hypothesis “we are Boltzmann brains” predicts that we should see our experience degenerate into random static at any moment. Since we do not see this we should update against that hypothesis.
You need to consider partially random/partially non-random processes. Imagine an alien civilization that decided what other race to simulate/what history to simulate based on flipping a series of quantum coins. The overall amplitude for that process picking you out will be very low, but still higher than the Boltzmann brain scenario. Why? Because the aliens will intentionally simulate the structured, deterministic parts of your life history and so will need less “random coincidences” to pick you out when compared to pure quantum fluctuations. This is even more so the case if we imagine future AIs simulating us, or humans in an alternate quantum branch who want to simulate alternative histories and decide on the exact person/civilization to simulate by flipping quantum coins. Yes the amplitude for this occurring will be very small, but still exponentially higher than the Boltzmann brain scenario.
Have you seen Robin Hanson’s Grabby Aliens argument? Basically, he argues that there are likely other aliens civilizations out there(in the observable universe) based on how early we are in the universe’s history. But even if we are the only life in the observable universe, it’s once again all about the relative likelihood. Life was at any rate likely enough for us to exist, that’s enough to see that it has far more relative likelihood compared to purely random fluctuations.