Thanks, that was exactly the sort of hint I needed (i.e. of the half dozen different approaches I’ve been working on, focus on this one). On to 3.3.
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Jaynes even uses the example of meteorites (aka thunderstones) to show that this line of reasoning, while valid by the laws of probability, can lead educated people to believe things that are not true.
The natural philosophers who knew something about gravity had a much higher prior probability for the unreliability of farmers’ reports of natural phenomena than they did for rocks falling from the sky, so every report served to reinforce the hypothesis that farmers don’t know what they are talking about. It took reports from people who were considered reliable in order for the meteorite hypothesis to be accepted.
How reliable a reporter would you need to call science in general into question?
As a suggestion, maybe typos that have no substantial impact on readability should be communicated to the author through a direct message rather than a public comment.
- 4 Mar 2010 18:12 UTC; 8 points) 's comment on For progress to be by accumulation and not by random walk, read great books by (
“Actually, the information needed to generate the Bible is the same as the information to locate the Bible in all those texts.”
Or to locate it in “The Library of Babel”.
In between DC and Baltimore
You should consider other solutions, since the first one you think of is unlikely to be the best/cheapest to implement. The “Edit” functionality already exists. Users above a certain karma level could be allowed to edit posts, as in the case of StackOverflow. The major cost is that there would need to be a way to revert changes to prevent vandalism. Morendil pointed out that DM are a bit harder to send than comments. If desired, that could be fixed cheaply. There are surely other solutions.
That sounds like a decent solution. I have no idea how hard the little red dot would be to program, but I think it would be distracting for the people who don’t care about the typos. The highlighted text from previous typo-alerts makes sure that only the people who care get the information.
Adversarial legal systems were not necessarily designed to be role models of rational groups. They are more like a way to give opposing biased adversaries an incrementally fairer way of fighting it out than existed previously.
I’m guessing scientific institutions don’t do this because the people involved feel they are less biased (and probably actually are) than participants in a legal system.
Hello.
My name is Dan, and I’m a 30 year old software engineer living in Maryland. I was a mostly lurking member of the Extropian mailing list back in the day and I’ve been following the progress of the SIAI sporadically since it’s founding. I’ve made a few donations, but nothing terribly significant.I’ve been an atheist for half my life now, and as I’ve grown older I’ve tended more and more to rational thinking. My wife recently made a comment that she specifically uses rational argument with me much more so than anyone else she has to deal with, even at work, because she knows that is what will work. (Obviously, she wins frequently enough to make it worth her while.)
I hope to have something minor to contribute to the akrasia discussion, although I haven’t fully formulated it yet. I used to be an avid video game player and I don’t play anymore. The last few times I played any games I didn’t even enjoy it. I plan to describe the experiences that led to this state. Unfortunately for general applicability, one of those experiences is “grow older and have a child.”
It’s not the most altruistic of motives, but what most draws me to this community is that I enjoy being right, and there seem to be lots of things I can learn here to help me to be right more often. What I would dream about getting out of this community is a way to find or prepare for meaningful work that helped reduce existential risk. I have a one year old daughter and I was recently asking myself “What is most likely to kill my children and grandchildren?” The answer I came up with was “The same thing that kills everyone else.”
Most of the anecdotes I can recall about changing work place culture are examples of unintentionally changing it for the worse. Has there ever been a high profile positive culture change in a large corporation?
Joel Spolsky wrote an article about companies following the get-big-fast strategy or the grow-slow strategy. One of the disadvantages to the get-big-fast strategy is so many people come on board that any existing corporate culture is overrun. The implication here is that the only way to establish a good culture is to have it established in the founders and grow slowly.
Does anyone have a good reference for the evolutionary psychology of curiosity? A quick google search yielded mostly general EP references. I’m specifically interested in why curiosity is so easily satisfied in certain cases (creation myths, phlogiston, etc.). I have an idea for why this might be the case, but I’d like to review any existing literature before writing it up.
I’m waiting for the revised edition to come out in May.
Looking at that amazon link, has anyone considered automatically inserting a SIAI affiliate into amazon links? It appeared to work quite well for StackOverflow.
I didn’t see any, but it is close to 100 pages longer.
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Yes. That does seem to be the correct context for a critique of the article. I was thinking more along the lines of “giving odds” in terms of “offering bets” in order to make money (ie, a bookie).
Whether something can be used for evil or not is the wrong question. It’s better to ask “How much does computer vision decrease the cost of evil?” Many of the bad things that could be done with CV can be done with a camera, a fast network connection, and an airman in Nevada, just as many of the good medical applications can be done by a patient postdoc or technician.
It’s an important note for the soccer game that Barbados needed to win by two points in order to advance to the finals. Otherwise, Grenada would go to the finals. Now people have a chance of imagining what happened.
My litmus test for whether someone even has the basic knowledge that might entitle them to the opinion that anthropogenic climate change isn’t happening is: “All other things being equal, does adding CO2 to the atmosphere make the world warmer?”
The answer is of course “yes.” Now, if a climate change non-skeptic answers “yes” the follow up question to see if they are entitled to their opinion that anthropogenic climate change is happening: “How could a climate change skeptic answer ‘yes’ to that question?” The correct answer to that is left as an exercise for the reader.
I’ve been reading Probability Theory by E.T. Jaynes and I find myself somewhat stuck on exercise 3.2. I’ve found ways to approach the problem that seem computationally intractable (at least by hand). It seems like there should be a better solution. Does anyone have a good solution to this exercise, or even better, know of collection of solutions to the exercises in the book?
At this point, if you have a complete solution, I’d certainly settle for vague hints and outlines if you didn’t want to type the whole thing. Thanks.