If I understand it correctly, Vitaliks main argument for accelerating (in any form) is that human defense has always exceeded expectations. But this is ignoring the whole “with ASI, we (might) have only one try” argument. All the examples he names, like solving smog, acid rain or the ozon layer, were reactions to problems, that were already existing for years. He even states it pretty directly: “version N of our civilization’s technology causes a problem, and version N+1 fixes it.” What if the problem of version N is already big enough to wipe out humanity fast?
The vitalik.ca page is down btw. Here is the link to the decentralized version.
If I understand it correctly, Vitaliks main argument for accelerating (in any form) is that human defense has always exceeded expectations. But this is ignoring the whole “with ASI, we (might) have only one try” argument. All the examples he names, like solving smog, acid rain or the ozon layer, were reactions to problems, that were already existing for years. He even states it pretty directly: “version N of our civilization’s technology causes a problem, and version N+1 fixes it.” What if the problem of version N is already big enough to wipe out humanity fast?
The vitalik.ca page is down btw. Here is the link to the decentralized version.
https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2023/11/27/techno_optimism.html