There is also an efficiency component to the energy expenditure of making social bids. Not only it can take someone more energy to make the same (perceived) bid, but the same bid can have different effects based on social skillfullness and a bunch of other things. This can be seen as a parameter in the dynamic equilibrium that can produce the feedback loop you mention.
fEdE
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I’d like to go on a bit of a tangent since I don’t recall seeing this line of thinking here on LW: are we sure that this is the case, that they think that what they are doing is reasonably safe? This seems to me to be stranger than the case where they know it’s not safe, and perhaps not safe at all. What I mean is that they surely are very motivated and they have strong incentives in pursuing AGI, but they don’t strike me as… stupid/incompetent?
Maybe they think that this is for the best, that humans are… not it? I could sort of understand where such a thought could be coming from.
It might be interesting to model their behavior keeping this possibility in mind. Maybe the point is not to show them that this is not safe, but that this is not right?