My question about the die-rolling experiment is: how would raising the $25 reward to, say $250, affect the probability of an undergraduate commiting the conjunction fallacy?
(By the way, Bill commits fallacies for a hobby, and he plays the tuba in a circus, but not jazz)
You forgot a few cases:
Loretta the Green looked at the sky and said: It is blue. Therefore, it is not the sky. Despite its inmensity, its openness, and those things that look like tufts of white cotton. Now that I think of it, those things don’t look quite like cotton.
Bob the Groovy Blue said: Wow. Wait until I tell everyone that it’s pink. (He was on acid, as usual).
Ed the Green said: Damm, it’s not green. It’s black.
Frank the Blue said: Hooray, it’s not green. It’s black.
(Obviously the last two arrived at night)
And finally John the Ecumenical said: Like I’ve always said. It’s cerulean!