″ that doesn’t make their strongest beliefs the most trustworthy—indeed, they’re the ones we ought to downgrade the most”
Not likely. Their strongest beliefs will be the most trustworthy, even though they are downgraded the most, because they start start out higher. It would be a very unlikely calibration graph indeed which assigned a lower probability to 99.9% assigned probabilities than to 95% assigned probabilities.
“1) the paperclip maximizer is not a paperclip maximizer but a different kind of unfriendly AI”
Being a paperclip maximizer is about values, not about decision theory. You can want to maximize paperclips but still use some of acausal decison theory that will cooperate with decision makers that would cooperate with paperclippers, as in cousin_it’s response.