(I was mostly using “cure cancer” as an example that folks will be impressed with, but I’ll straightforwardly answer your question)
Cancer is many different things (even sometimes within the same tumor). Biology is complicated, and not my expertise, but a subset of cancers would be helped by understanding the functionality of genes and how they interact (ie Gene Regulatory Networks (GRNs)). For example, if a type of cancer works through [Gene 1], then we knock it out, it might instead use [Gene 2] (ie bypass pathway activation). It’d be great if we understood that Gene 1 & 2 do the same thing, so drugs should target both.
I think this can be done soon through Mech Interp on bio models[1] (ie single cell expressions models, which are different but you can finetune parts to find GRN).
Currently only 14% of patients are eligable for targetted therapy and only 7% respond successfully. Better models here would increase that percentage (unsure on how much).
There are many other types of cancer that work differently that I haven’t thought about.
For timeline: end of 2027 for the technical results and basic wet-lab functionality. Unsure on FDA/approval side of things.
For ALL cancer, I really don’t know. I would speculate that 2027 models would work well enough to help with the research, but the bottleneck being good data-collection. (Again, heavy speculation).
- ^
Disclaimer: I do mech interp

A more accurate GRN would also help the methods Ihor presents here for intelligence augmentation. I really am unsure on whether these’d actually work, but it actually seems way easier and tractable than genetic engineering in babies. This is due to it NOT being gene editing (and instead just like a normal drug, but to eg increase neuro-plasticity or something); which is easier for both mechanical and social reasons.