distbit

• distbit 19 May 2026 4:35 UTC

  2 points

  0

  on: Futarchy is Par­a­sitic on What It Tries to Govern

  Otherwise, he immobilizes his funds for no payout. Unless the welfare mispricing is on the order of , no arbitrageur would touch this market with a ten foot pole. Holding treasuries would be better business.

  what if he could trade conditional on randomisation without needing to lockup capital to be released in the case that that randomisation doesn’t occur? wouldn’t this make such arbitrage profitable even if the mispricing is small relative to 1/​e?

• distbit 9 Apr 2026 10:00 UTC

  11 points

  0

  on: Do not be sur­prised if LessWrong gets hacked

  I created a market related to some of this post’s predictions: https://​​manifold.markets/​​distbit/​​will-an-individualised-ransomware-c