Eliezer,
Could you elaborate a little bit more about the danger of inventing AGI by the large crowd of mediocre researchers?
Why would it be more dangerous than AGI break-through made in a single lab?
From my perspective—the more people are involved in the invention—the safer it is for the whole society.
We know that the first researcher is able to successfully predict the results of experiment. We don’t know that about the second researcher. Therefore I would bet on the first researcher prediction (but only assuming other things being equal).
Then we’ll do the experiment and know for sure.