Doesn’t this basically move the reference class tennis to the meta-level?
“Oh, in general I’m terrible at planning, but not in cases involving X, Y and Z!”
It seems reasonable that this is harder to do this on a meta-level, but do any of the other points you mention actually “solve” this problem?
Isn’t the point exactly that if you can’t solve the whole problem of (AGI + Alignment) then it would be better not even to try solving the relaxed problem (AGI)?