I am by no means expert in this. My theory is effective writing in general is a way to signal one’s intelligence in most medieval societies. This is especially so if one can write and read in a form of ancient text. But in Western Europe this was achieved by directly using a old language—Latin. Proficiency in a different language by itself is enough to be an indicator of intelligence. However the Chinese to an extent have been using the same language (or at least writing) for the entire history. An example would be for a typical grade 8 Chinese language textbook would include many old passages some of which was written 18 centuries ago. Being able to write plainly in an everyday language is not something hard. So the Chinese scholars have a greater urge to show their status by using poetic and archaic expressions. Very often at the expense of clarity.
dadadarren
Why am I Me?
The First-Person Perspective Is Not A Random Sample
Hello ordinary folks, I’m the Chosen One
Anthropic Reasoning and Perspective-Based Arguments
Ahh, the famous Lun Yu. It is full of such expressions that direct translation gives you a headache. To me the most famous example would be “民可使由之不可使知之”. Due to the lack of punctuation it can be translated in two different ways:
1: 民可使由之，不可使知之：common people shall be commanded, (but) not enlightened.
2: 民可，使由之。不可，使知之。：(if) common people are well educated let them act on their own. If not, enlighten them. Pretty drastically different political ideal here.
The First Person And The Physical Person
Primitive Perspectives and Sleeping Beauty
An Alternative Interpretation of Physics
Which Questions Are Anthropic Questions?
Full Non-Indexical Conditioning Also Assumes A Self Sampling Process.
Absent-Minded Driver and Self-Locating Probabilities
The Perspective-based Explanation to the Reflective Inconsistency Paradox
Which Anaesthetic To Choose?
Leslie’s Firing Squad Can’t Save The Fine-Tuning Argument
Essentially what Gunnar_Zarncke said.
Assuming the objective is to maximize my money, there is no good strategy. You can make the decision as you described, but how do you justify it being the correct decision? I either get the money or not as I am either L or not. But there is no explanation as to why. The decimal numbers never appeared for just me.
The value calculated is meaningful if applied to all copies. The decimal numbers are the relative fractions. It is correct to say if every copy makes decisions this way then they will have more money combined. But there is no first-person in this. Why would this decision also be the best for me specifically? There is no reason. Unless we make an additional assumption such as “I am a random sample from these copies.”
A Simplified Version of Perspective Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem
It seems earlier posts and your post have defined anthropic shadow differently in subtle but important ways. The earlier posts by Christopher and Jessica argued AS is invalid: that there should be updates given I survived. Your post argued AS is valid: that there are games where no new information gained while playing can change your strategy (no useful updates). The former is focusing on updates, the latter is focusing on strategy. These two positions are not mutually exclusive.
Personally, the concept of “useful update” seems situational. For example, say someone has a prior that leads him to conclude the optimal strategy is not to play the Chinese Roulette. However, he was forced to play several rounds regardless of what he thought. After surviving those rounds (say EEEEE), it might very well be that he updates his probability enough to change his strategy from no-play to play. That would be a useful update. And this “forced-to-play” kind of situation is quite relevant to existential risks, which anthropic discussions tend to focus on.
Basing on the reply I am not very certain of your exact position. I kind of suspect it is implying the multiverse response to fine-tuning. It suggests the reason for observed fine-tuning is because there are many universes in total, and only in the ones compatible with life can give rises to observers pondering upon the parameters. Therefore finding ourselves in a universe compatible with life is not a surprise. I.e. It is not statistically incredible because of the huge number of universes out there.
I have to say that answer is very problematic. It treats “I” or “us” as the outcome of a sampling process subjected to survivorship bias, which interprets the WAP as an Observer Selection Effect (OSE). This conceptual selection has to be done from a god’s eye perspective. It makes the same mistake as the fine-tuning argument by mixing first-person reasoning with objective reasoning.
In my opinion, this actually justifies the fine-tuning argument. Furthermore, it hijacks the anthropic rebuttal (which should be a simple tautology based on consistent perspective thinking). It also leaves the door open for rebuttals such as Leslie’s firing squad and the fine-tuned multiverse.
In a sense, the fine-tuning argument is still an ongoing debate because currently, anthropic reasoning is inadequate. It is filled with paradoxes and controversies. All popular assumptions (SSA, SIA) treats indexicals as the outcome of some sampling process, implying the OSE. My Perspective-Based Argument (PBA) is an attempt to change that.
As a Chinese I want to contribute some thought into this topic.
One thing I want to mention is the difference in language. Classical Chinese is a language extremely difficult to master. It literally take decades of effort to be able to write a decent piece. It is hard not because of complicated grammar or complex sentence structure. But because it focus on poetic expressions and scholarly idioms. This language is very enjoyable to read and relatable when used in expressing emotions and ideas. However it is quite cumbersome in expressing precise logic and definitions. Yet at least before the new cultural movement in 1916 it is generally regarded that anything worth put into writing should be done in Classical Chinese. This severely limits the participation of the general populace. Even if someone is trained enough to put down scientific related topics in Classical Chinese it is unlikely to be regarded as a masterful piece and gather much audience. Just like if a poorly written piece is posted in lesswrong we are more likely to skip it regardless of the content it is expressing.