Here just a quick response. The intended point of the paper was to allow readers to engage with the position opposite of the one they hold at the time. If read with attention to detail and arguments that could change their minds, it is unlikely to strengthen the readers views, but instead make the reader more uncertain about their position.
There’s considerable fuzziness and speculation at each position along the spectrum from optimism to pessimism. No position depended on a view papers alone, so I disagree with the claim that progress within the last year will make the analysis completely irrelavent and tip the balance very clearly to one side. Worldviews which are non-falsifyable at this stage, played a role in views on both sides.
I can confirm that the experts I interviewed were neither loud or angry. We should probably not assume (no matter the side of the debate we support) that the views of annonymous experts, who do not share our views, isn’t rooted in intellectual seriousness.
I so appreciate your candid reaction.
Here just a quick response. The intended point of the paper was to allow readers to engage with the position opposite of the one they hold at the time. If read with attention to detail and arguments that could change their minds, it is unlikely to strengthen the readers views, but instead make the reader more uncertain about their position.
There’s considerable fuzziness and speculation at each position along the spectrum from optimism to pessimism. No position depended on a view papers alone, so I disagree with the claim that progress within the last year will make the analysis completely irrelavent and tip the balance very clearly to one side. Worldviews which are non-falsifyable at this stage, played a role in views on both sides.
I can confirm that the experts I interviewed were neither loud or angry. We should probably not assume (no matter the side of the debate we support) that the views of annonymous experts, who do not share our views, isn’t rooted in intellectual seriousness.
Thanks for reading my paper Gwern!