Ben Wilson

AI Fore­cast­ing in 2026: What 11 Analy­ses Say

• Ben Wilson 9 May 2026 1:08 UTC

  3 points

  0

  on: Real-Life Ex­am­ples of Pre­dic­tion Sys­tems In­terfer­ing with the Real World (Pre­dict-O-Matic Prob­lems)

  Another example: My grandpa (before he passed) had built a system that predicted how fast manufacturing employees would finish certain products. It was a little too accurate, and for internal political reasons was shut down. People (or the union?) did not like being told they were slow on average. The transparency put pressure on people to be constantly working and optimize efficiency (potentially at the cost of other things). I can’t remember if this was justified or not (e.g., whether the tool was calling out people who were truly slacking, or removing the little slack people needed to stay sane), but it had a real effect.

  What links here?

  • AI Fore­cast­ing in 2026: What 11 Analy­ses Say by Ben Wilson (8 Jul 2026 14:39 UTC; 25 points)
  • AI Fore­cast­ing in 2026: What 11 Analy­ses Say by Benjamin Wilson 🔸 (EA Forum; 8 Jul 2026 14:33 UTC; 10 points)

An­nounc­ing Spring 2026 AI Fore­cast­ing Benchmark

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