bartimaeus

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bartimaeus May 24, 2013, 8:09 PM
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in reply to: Mestroyer’s comment on: Is a paperclipper better than nothing?
How about a sentient AI whose utility function is orthogonal to yours? You care nothing about anything it cares about and it cares about nothing you care about. Also, would you call such an AI sentient?

bartimaeus May 24, 2013, 6:10 PM
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in reply to: gwern’s comment on: [LINK] Soylent crowdfunding
Ok, I see what your concern is, with the hype around Soylent everyone’s opinion is skewed (even if they’re not among the fanboys).

You decided above that it wasn’t worth your time to try your own self-experiments with it. What if someone else were to take the time to do it? I like the concept but agree with the major troubles you listed above, and I have no experience with designing self-experiments. But maybe I’ll take the time to try and do it properly, long-term, with regular blood tests, noting what I’ve been eating for a couple months before starting, taking data about my fitness levels, etc. Of course, I would need to analyze the risk to myself beforehand.

bartimaeus May 24, 2013, 4:32 PM
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in reply to: gwern’s comment on: [LINK] Soylent crowdfunding
What would you like to see done differently? You mentioned the more thorough self-experimentation he could have done (really should have done), but there’s still someone else who could step up to the plate and do some self-testing.

Thorough studies? Those might also be done some time in the future, whether or not they’re funded by Rob (not sure about this point, there might not be an incentive to do so once it’s being sold).

Sure, Rob jumped the gun and hyped it up. But most of the internet is already a giant circle-jerk. Doesn’t stop people from generating real information, right?

bartimaeus May 24, 2013, 4:19 PM
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in reply to: ChristianKl’s comment on: Open thread, May 17-31 2013
I don’t have enough experience to even give an order of magnitude, but maybe I can give an order of magnitude of the order of magnitude:

Right now, the probability of Christianity specifically might be somewhere around 0.0000001% (that’s probably too high even). One hour post judgement-day, it might rise to somewhere around 0.001% (several orders of magnitude).

Now let’s say the world continues to burn, I see angels in the sky, get to talk to some of them, see dead relatives (who have information that allows me to verify that they’re not my own hallucinations), and so on...the probability could bring the hypothesis to one of the top spots in the ranking of plausible explanations.

...assuming that I’m still free to experiment with reality and not chained and burning. Also assuming that I actually take the time to do this as opposed to run and hide.

bartimaeus May 24, 2013, 4:13 PM
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in reply to: Viliam_Bur’s comment on: Open thread, May 17-31 2013
The continuation of the burning makes the hallucination hypothesis less probable, for as long as it continues. Also, if it continues past the laws of physics, as you point out.

bartimaeus May 22, 2013, 10:00 PM
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in reply to: gwern’s comment on: [LINK] Soylent crowdfunding
What do you expect will happen? Do you think lots of people are going to get very sick by going on a Soylent-only diet immediately, not monitoring their health closely, and ending up with serious nutritional deficiencies? That’s one of the more negative scenario, but I honestly don’t know how likely that is. I think people are likely to do at least one of three things:
- Monitor their health more closely (especially on a soylent-only diet),
- Only replace a few meals with Soylent (not more than, say, 75%),
- Return to normal food or see a doctor if a serious deficiency occurs.
Then again, I may have too much confidence in people’s common sense. Rob is definitely marketing it as a finished product and a miracle solution.

bartimaeus May 22, 2013, 8:44 PM
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in reply to: OrphanWilde’s comment on: [LINK] Soylent crowdfunding
The concept is good, but the methodology could have been significantly better. It has lots of potential, and the real danger is limited to those that will be consuming ONLY Soylent for extended periods. Using it to replace a meal or two a day, and having a complete meal every day, shouldn’t be dangerous (I think).

What confuses me about the negativity is, what’s so bad about the current situation? The earliest of adopters will serve as a giant trial, and if there are problems they’ll come up there.

Also: people who intend to switch to JUST soylent should be monitored by a doctor or a nutritionist, at least for the first while. And post it either here or on the Solyent board. I am very interested to hear some anecdata.

bartimaeus May 21, 2013, 7:10 PM
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in reply to: Shmi’s comment on: Open thread, May 17-31 2013

Beware of identifying in general. “We” are all quite different. Few if any of “us” can be considered reasonably rational by the standards of this site.

That’s a good point, which I’ll watch out for in the future.

With a sizable minority of theists here, why is this even an issue, except maybe for some heavily religious newcomers?

One thing I didn’t specify is that this applies to discussions with non-LessWrongers about religion (or about LessWrong). On the site, there’s no point in bothering with this identification process, because we’re more likely to notice that we’re generalizing and ask for an elaboration.

bartimaeus May 21, 2013, 4:54 PM
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on: Open thread, May 17-31 2013
I’m thinking of making a Discussion post about this, but I’m not sure if it has already been mentioned.

We’re not atheists—we’re rationalists.

I think it’s worth distinguishing ourselves from the “atheist” label. On the internet, and in society (what I’ve seen of it, which is limited), the label includes a certain kind of “militant atheist” who love to pick fights with the religious and crusade against religion whenever possible. The arguments are, obviously, the sames ones being used over and over again, and even people who would identify as atheists don’t want to associate themselves to this vocal minority that systematically makes everyone uncomfortable.

I think most LessWrongers aren’t like that, and don’t want to attach a label to themselves that will sneak in those connotations. Personally, I identify as a rationalist, not an atheist. The two things that distinguish me from them:

Social consequentialism. I know conversations about religion are often not productive, so I’m quick to tap out of such discussions. Unlike a lot of atheists, I could, in principle, be persuaded to believe otherwise (given sufficient evidence). If judgement day comes and I see the world burning around me, I will probably first think that I’ve gone insane; but the probability I assign to theism will increase, as per Bayes’ Theorem.

Note that this feeling is dependent on who you know, so I might be a minority in the label I see attached to atheism.

What do people think? I wrote this pretty quickly, and could take the time to a more coherent text to post in discussion.

bartimaeus May 21, 2013, 12:55 PM
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in reply to: Viliam_Bur’s comment on: LINK: Google research chief: ‘Emergent artificial intelligence? Hogwash!’
A real-world adblock would be great; you could also use this type of augmented reality to improve your driving, walk through your city and see it in a completely different era, use it for something like the Oculus Rift...the possibilities are limitless.

Companies will act in their own self-interest, by giving people what it is they want, as opposed to what they need. Some of it will be amazingly beneficial, and some of it will be...not in a person’s best interest. And it will depend on how people use it.

bartimaeus May 19, 2013, 3:44 PM
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in reply to: TheOtherDave’s comment on: LINK: Google research chief: ‘Emergent artificial intelligence? Hogwash!’
This is a community of intellectuals who love learning, and who aren’t afraid of controversy. So for us, it wouldn’t be a disaster. But I think we’re a minority, and a lot of people will only see what they specifically want to see and won’t learn very much on a regular basis.

bartimaeus May 19, 2013, 3:47 AM
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in reply to: lucidian’s comment on: LINK: Google research chief: ‘Emergent artificial intelligence? Hogwash!’
A post from the sequences that jumps to mind is Interpersonal Entanglement:

When I consider how easily human existence could collapse into sterile simplicity, if just a single major value were eliminated, I get very protective of the complexity of human existence.

If people gain increased control of their reality, they might start simplifying it past the point where there are no more sufficiently complex situations to allow your mind to grow, and for you to learn new things. People will start interacting more and more with things that are specifically tailored to their own brains; but if we’re only exposed to things we want to be exposed to, the growth potential of our mind becomes very limited. Basically an extreme version of Google filtering your search results to only show you what it thinks you’ll like, as opposed to what you should see.

Seems like a step in the wrong direction.

bartimaeus May 17, 2013, 9:53 PM
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in reply to: Larks’s comment on: Open thread, May 17-31 2013
I just realized I generalized too much. In Canada, you require a four-year Bachelor’s of Education specifically (same as for being an engineer, and more than most trades). The average salary seems to be about the same as in the US.

bartimaeus May 17, 2013, 4:52 PM
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in reply to: Epsilon725’s comment on: Open thread, May 17-31 2013
Read the Sequences.

How did you find the site?

bartimaeus May 17, 2013, 3:37 PM
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on: Open thread, May 17-31 2013
Why aren’t teachers as respected as other professionals? It’s too bad that the field is lower paid and less respected than other professional fields, because the quality of the teachers (probably) suffers in consequence. There’s a vicious cycle: teachers aren’t highly respected --> parents and others don’t respect their experience -->no one wants to go into teaching and teachers aren’t motivated to excel --> teachers aren’t highly respected.

It’s almost surprising that I had so many excellent teachers through the years. The personal connection between teachers and their students must be particularly strong, because the environment doesn’t seem to be very motivating for teachers to want to be excellent at what they do.

Based on anecdotal evidence. I just think it’s too bad.

bartimaeus May 17, 2013, 3:30 PM
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in reply to: sixes_and_sevens’s comment on: Open thread, May 17-31 2013
Upvote for meetups!

1) Job searching. It forces you to really size yourself up and compare yourself to everyone around you.

2) I really like your example. My own: feeling pressured to hang out with certain friends (because they’ll feel neglected). Rather than realize that friends that guilt you into seeing them need to be see LESS, my brain just makes me feel bad.

bartimaeus May 17, 2013, 11:24 AM
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on: 10-Step Anti-Procrastination Checklist
I use a very similar formula, and it works pretty well.. One thing i also do: spend 5 minutes clearing my mind before jumping into a 25-minute Pomodoro cycle. It helps shut down the feelings triggered by an Ugh field and I find myself more concentrated.

Additionally, lazy-me LOVES having an excuse to do nothing for 5 more minutes.

bartimaeus May 17, 2013, 12:47 AM
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in reply to: Viliam_Bur’s comment on: Why is it rational to invest in retirement? I don’t get it.
I fully agree with the last paragraph. When it comes to valuing my time, the less free time I have, the more valuable it is, and the less reluctant I am to spend it (the value of an hour of my time isn’t constant).

If I’m busy at a given time, it might not take much for me to go out of my way to help a friend; but if I’m really busy and they ask, there had better be some kind of incentive.

...upon reflection, that would be why people get paid time and a half for overtime.

bartimaeus May 17, 2013, 12:43 AM
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in reply to: Viliam_Bur’s comment on: Why is it rational to invest in retirement? I don’t get it.
What career paths are open to programmers? Do a lot of programmers go into management (head of a programming team), or specialize in something harder to learn? You seem to be saying that a programmer with 20 years of experience wouldn’t have that much of an edge over someone with only 2 or 3 years experience.

As an engineer, two of the popular paths are going into project management or similar, or gaining a high amount of technical proficiency in certain domains. Either way, these types of positions really do require the extra experience.

bartimaeus May 17, 2013, 12:35 AM
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in reply to: Omid’s comment on: Why is it rational to invest in retirement? I don’t get it.
Depending on your current career path, up to a certain age it’s entirely possible to switch careers entirely, even to something that makes concrete use of skills acquired from another career (so it’s not a complete restart). Built-up capital or some other means of remaining self-sustainable for a period of time could allow you to return to school in something completely different.

I’m not speaking from experience though; I can guess that this type of situation would be difficult. But when saving, balancing the return on investment with the accessibility of the funds seems wise.