I took the survey!
b_sen
Karma: 228
I’m planning a rationalist technique-demonstrating sequel to HPMOR. I know about the Virtue of Silence. Are there any skills I should leave out?
By “fanfic” do you mean: 1) the written content itself, 2) the model of the fictional universe (including characters) generated in the process of writing that content, 3) the model of the fictional universe (including characters) generated in the process of reading that content, or 4) something else?
The written content is unlikely to bootstrap itself on account of not being code, but its effects on the minds that read it are less clear.
In all seriousness, though, if I had a fully mapped out path for bootstrapping well beyond human intelligence I would have better uses for it than writing recursive Harry Potter fanfiction. I was thinking more along the lines of Harry fixing his dark side and interpreting the Unbreakable Vow.
Adding to my previous prediction comment:
Predictions: (I’ll have to score them all after the epilogue is released, but hey, it means we get an epilogue.)
The “phoenix’s egg” password will (directly or indirectly) allow Harry to find Narcissa Malfoy. 70%
The Line of Merlin feeds information to its rightful holder when they’re holding it. 60%
At least one Legilimency conversation occurred during Chapter 119. 90%
Speculations:
What happens if Harry casts the True Patronus through the Elder Wand? Given that it’s a Deathly Hallow that raises the priors of something interesting happening with a spell embodying a preference for life over death, but with the “sense of strength and constrained danger, like a leashed wolf” Harry feels when holding it I’m not sure what the effect would be.
I don’t have a link offhand, but I recall EY stating his reasons for not boosting Hermione:
She doesn’t need the boost to compete with the other characters, including Harry
If she was boosted, the story would be “Hermione Granger Discovers the Methods of Rationality and Becomes Omnipotent” (i.e. a thoroughly power-boosted Hermione would break the story)
A boosted Hermione would plausibly be smarter then EY
The Author’s Note mention of the delayed epilogue (combined with some of the foreshadowing in HPMOR) feels to me like an invitation to write the obvious continuation fic Harry Potter and the Methods of Self-Modification, set between the ending of HPMOR and the epilogue. Does anyone else find this the obvious continuation?
I’m also not sure if writing the fic would actually be a good idea; anyone want to help me evaluate it?
I hope Voldemort’s “fallback weapon” also had sunlight-resistant skin. Otherwise Hermione might have issues with going outside...
I also take it that Harry’s refusal to give Quirrell’s eulogy even before he knew Q = V is because of his views on death in general.
Speaking of the eulogy, is Harry cheering at the end? And does he have any way of protecting his Transfigurations against Finite Incantatem?
Assuming it’s her arm, which is plausible given that Harry noticed its thinness but isn’t confirmed. In any case, I was mainly just raising the question.
I wonder if Harry can help Draco by teaching him the True Patronus (possibly to have Draco resurrect Lucius). It would be a nice callback to their early scientific discoveries and Harry teaching Draco Patronus 1.0, although Harry might have to be very careful about how he does it.
I also notice that Lesath wasn’t among the kids who’d lost parents, so they didn’t find Bellatrix among the Death Eaters at the graveyard. Where is Bellatrix?
Adding to my previous prediction comment:
Predictions:
Harry did at least one plot-relevant thing in the time we haven’t seen (between him time-turning back at the graveyard in Chapter 115 and returning to the Quidditch match for Chapter 116). 80%
Harry intentionally made his scar bleed in Chapter 116. 95% (Perhaps using Muggle special effects?)
Someone will see through Harry’s acting (in Chapter 116 at the Quidditch match), whether by deducing things themselves or being told some part of what really happened, by the end of the story. 90%
Draco will figure out that Harry was involved in Voldemort’s recent defeat. 70% (This does not specify how he figures it out, although Harry has left several big clues besides his bad acting. For example, the stone in his ring changing colour before Voldemort dies and him falling to his knees only when he hears the explosion rather than 20 seconds earlier.)
Some thought in-universe will be given to saving Lucius from death by Harry’s partial Transfiguration by the end of the story. 75%
The “luminous white quiver running over the holly” and “drifting motes of silver light like tiny specks of Patronus Charm” when Harry Obliviates Voldemort in Chapter 115 are not normal for Obliviation. 90%
The “luminous white quiver running over the holly” and “drifting motes of silver light like tiny specks of Patronus Charm” when Harry Obliviates Voldemort in Chapter 115 indicate something. 80%
Obliviated Voldemort will retain the memory of at least one instance of casting the starlight spell for Harry. 50%
Harry will insist that Hermione learn to protect her mind. 75%
This.
Voldemort’s not only being paranoid enough to strip Harry’s clothes from him, he’s being careful and cautious enough to remove an object Harry Transfigured without letting their magics interact. That kind of attitude is jarringly inconsistent with leaving Harry his wand for no apparent reason.
Luke_A_Somers already suggested adding a reason for Harry to have his wand. I think that adding such a reason combined with changes that increase our estimate of Voldemort’s estimate of P(Time will try to thwart Voldemort’s attempt to avert the prophecy through something other than Harry | Time will try to thwart Voldemort’s attempt to avert the prophecy) would make things seem much more consistent; leaving Harry his clothes and having some (not necessarily most) of the Death Eaters looking outwards would both help with the latter.
The reason I suggest increasing readers’ estimates of Voldemort’s estimate of P(Time will try to thwart Voldemort’s attempt to avert the prophecy through something other than Harry | Time will try to thwart Voldemort’s attempt to avert the prophecy) rather than just making Voldemort less paranoid overall in this situation is to avoid worsening the Villain Ball complaints; shifting his paranoia partly elsewhere allows him to be the sharp antagonist we’re expecting while suggesting that he’s confident the precautions he takes are sufficient to neutralize Harry as a threat (which allows Harry to win). That confidence isn’t out of place for his character—even though he’s read Muggle books, it’s entirely plausible that he hasn’t integrated that knowledge well enough to start questioning what he knows as the limits of magic (and thereby come to think of partial Transfiguration, or more generally realize that Harry might question those limits and succeed in discovering something he can wordlessly cast without pointing his wand).
The particular changes I mentioned also have the side benefit of not really affecting the major proposed solutions to the Final Exam. If you do change it, I think a historical version should be preserved for correspondence with the Collective Intelligence’s effort.
(EDIT: formatting)
The Obvious Solution, Continued:
“I offer you hint towardss power over life-eaterss, and alsso propossal for what to do with knowledge. Propossal is ssafe and so iss hint, no malice in either.”
The snakish face now looked decidedly interested.
“Hint iss happy thought for guardian Charm. Thought of defeating death for good, in doing sso preventing eventual apocalypsse, desstruction of humanss. Including wizardkind.”
He hadn’t wanted to give away any secrets, but the happy thought didn’t give away the nature of Dementors directly and was indeed only a hint, although a fairly blatant one when combined with the Parseltongue name for Dementors. Besides, he needed to convince Voldemort of his belief in that thought, in that possible future, for this next part to work...
“Including you, teacher. Sstill prefer your life to your death, even knowing you to be Dark Lord. Decided to usse Muggle weapon only to sset back your plot, wass not attempt on your true life. ”
Carefully, now the carrot...
“Future I intend to create would be pleassant for you, give you many opportunitiess to follow dessiress wherever they lead. Wissh to plot againsst invoker of Parsselmouth cursse himsself? I would bring him back to life too, with your help.”
Those red eyes widened ever-so-slightly at the idea of plotting against Salazar Slytherin.
“Wissh to have many intelligent opponentss at once, play game with more than one plotter and more than one plan? You would not have to worry about death, not even about ssafety of horcruxess. Not even exploding sstar could causse your death or other catasstrophe; would improve sspace travel, sspread society among sstarss. Not even idiotss could cause dissasster; ssafeguardss would be improved. Idiotss would alsso be kept well away from you—I know how much you disslike dealing with them.”
Just a little bit of a scare away from his plan, not too much...
“Can purssue thiss—musst purssue thiss—without unnecessary risk of desstruction. Girl-child friend is voice of caution, will advisse me on conducting ressearchess with care greater than mosst wizardbornss, will not allow me to breach ssealss that I sshould not breach, nor allow knowledge to fall into handss of idiotss. But Vow makess me tell you girl-child friend would notice that your plan may be prophecied dissasster, ssince you were hearer and many would conssider Dark Lord’ss rule dissasster. You may wake her and explain everything to check, if you believe my undersstanding of her incomplete.”
Voldemort shook his head once. “Not necessary. Finissh explaining propossal.”
“You ssaid earlier that between uss we would decline to play out dramatic battle, that ssuch battle between uss wass figment of former sschoolmasster’ss imagination. You are correct. Do not wissh to battle you. Wissh insstead to battle death together, create greater world for uss both.”
And now to spring the dilemma.
“But Vow tiess my handss. If you agree to help me, and provide assurancess ssufficient to ssatissfy girl-child friend in her right mind, then I would help you create dessirable world as desscribed. But if you inssisst on plan to rule as Dark Lord, girl-child friend would conssider it dissasster sset in motion by my hand, desstructive inaction if I did not try to sstop you. Sshe would demand I try if all thiss were confided in her. And action to sstop you would not be sstupidity; order sservantss to harm me, or lead me to ssusspect that you are doing sso, and they all die on sspot. Would rather not demonsstrate; will be eassier for you to provide ssufficient assurancess with at leasst ssome of sservantss alive.”
It was elegant, really, identical actions in a Prisoner’s Dilemma forced by an Unbreakable Vow that his opponent devised the text of. Malice had nothing to do with it, not on Harry’s part.
“Vow givess me no choice; can only help you if you agree to help me. And quickly, or it may force me to kill sservantss.”
(Notice the side order of currently-slow takeoff and extreme goal-directedness, along with Harry escaping the box.)
(EDIT: formatting)
The Obvious Solution: Avert Destruction at Every Possible Point of Intervention
Notice that the solution classes above are not mutually exclusive at the planning stage, and can even be combined with some as backups for others. Naturally, then, part of the lesson is to do exactly that—because Harry needs this to succeed.
To show that I can figure out exactly how to combine them and the details of how Harry should talk his way out of the box, I’m going to write out the combination as a hypothetical Chapter 114. Doing so requires me to pick specifics out of each solution class, but should get my point across.
Chapter 114: Final Exam Solution
Even as Voldemort was still hissing out his threats, Harry’s mind started racing with wordless inferences.
Must at least evade immediate death—can’t sort out how to deal with other problems if I’m dead -
- must also avoid unnecessary risk of destruction -
Voldemort had intended the Unbreakable Vow to compel no positive action in itself, nor to compel inaction in case of disasters already set in motion by Harry’s own actions. But being a knowing bystander to disaster, when he could have intervened, would be allowing it to happen by his own actions just as much as if he had set it in motion himself; Hermione would agree once she’d had everything explained and come to understand heroic responsibility.
There were catastrophes every day; 150 000 deaths a day could hardly be considered anything less. Hermione would want those lives saved, just like he would. And unless someone ended death, humanity (and life) would die out eventually. It was a statistical fact that those two different spirits could not exist in the same world.
Any vow was Unbreakable, if made by the right person.
- the Vow requires me to choose Light and world optimization, therefore my survival decreases the risk and expected severity of future disasters barring exceptions like self-sacrifice -
And now Harry couldn’t slow his thoughts down to put them in words, not even if he wanted to, not while his survival depended on thinking quickly; the Unbreakable Vow he had sworn was driving his best efforts as a rationalist towards the course of least destruction and he couldn’t stop it any more than an Artificial Intelligence could disobey its programming.
- he just said I have sixty seconds; how can I get out of this or at least stall for more time without drawing fire from the Death Eaters -
- spells requiring incantations or wand movements are out of the question, but free Transfiguration uses neither -
A wordless image of Transfiguring a cross-section through the troll’s brain flashed through his mind. To kill thirty-six Death Eaters at once, though, he’d need to pick a small but immediately fatal cross-section so that the total volume would stay small enough to affect quickly -
- sever the medulla oblongata and they die in a fifth of a second -
Free Transfiguration required his wand to be touching part of the volume he wanted to Transfigure, but there was no reason to limit partial Transfiguration to part of one object, not now that he’d put so much practice into seeing past the illusion of objects in order to perform partial Transfiguration in the first place. And while he could retest Transfiguring air now that he understood partial Transfiguration, he didn’t want to risk giving anything away by looking down near his wand.
- wands are robust to minor chemical burns -
Harry visualized a thin line (noticeably less than a millimeter thick) along the outside of his wand from the tip to his pinky finger, up his skin to his shoulder and then back down to his heel where it touched the bare ground. The line then split into thirty-six separate lines along the ground, one for each Death Eater, leading to their shoes, through their shoes and socks, and finally up their bodies to the desired cross-section of brain.
His conscientious Transfiguration practice had done him a great deal of good; not only could he hold the complex volume in mind while continuing to think, but his shaping practice would also let him Transfigure only the intended cross-sections into sulfuric acid without sustaining damage from routing the connecting line through his body. After getting those sections to Transfigure first, he would just cancel the Transfiguration rather than complete it. As further protection against damage, he also chose a target form with no changes to the material along the connecting lines, keeping the acid only where it would be needed.
He held the visualization of this Transfiguration in his mind, ready to perform it at a moment’s notice if it were needed, but didn’t cast the spell just yet.
- I have a plan now, but it involves thirty-six deaths and doesn’t buy me much time. Voldemort will use Muggle methods to kill me if he has to; at best I might be able to escape on Quirrell’s broomstick-bones and maybe grab the pouch and Stone while he’s distracted. -
Time to look for a better plan, or rather additional plans. Hermione would also consider Voldemort’s plan a massive catastrophe, and that was definitely aided by Harry being stupid. He hadn’t sufficiently questioned Quirrell, hadn’t kept the symbol of the Deathly Hallows a secret rather than showing it to Quirrell, hadn’t reconsidered telling McGonagall about the sense of doom, hadn’t told the Order what really happened in the Azkaban breakout, hadn’t declined the Azkaban breakout as a stupid idea, hadn’t realized something was wrong with the note before going back in time, too many mistakes to enumerate now...
...so now he had to keep planning to stop Voldemort, had to avert disaster at every possible point of intervention. And also improve his ability to continue averting disaster afterwards if he survived -
- besides just survival, self-improvement and acquiring more resources are also useful -
The terrible clarity continued to strengthen its grip on his mind, although it no longer felt Dark now that it had been harnessed this way. It felt… integrated, a set of skills that retained their chaining to each other but also blended smoothly into the rest of his mind.
(Somewhere in a distant back part of his mind, Harry noted just how much the Unbreakable Vow had altered his mind and made a note to restore pre-Vow Harry in a more optimized world, then let him choose how he wanted to live his life.)
Destroy Voldemort’s current body by Transfiguring part of the ground underneath him into antimatter: Would be a setback to him, but is also a self-sacrifice move. Hermione might survive to become a Light Lady if I keep the amount small enough. Keep the idea around in case self-sacrifice seems worth it later, but keep looking for more plans.
Cast a spell on Voldemort directly and hope the resonance kills him: Another self-sacrifice move, and will probably draw fire from the Death Eaters unless I make it a quick Transfiguration I can finish before the resonance gets me too. I have no assurance that doing so will kill him rather than just force him out of his current body. Keep looking.
Tell Voldemort some secrets that aren’t actually that useful: Largely failure. Stalls for time, but he’ll rapidly grow impatient.
Tell Voldemort some secrets that are useful: Also largely a failure. Better stall for time at the expense of adding to his future power and making him harder to stop later, and he’s probably still going to kill me.
Voldemort seems to have most of the immediate power here. For him to keep you alive, you’ll have to convince him that it’s in his best interests to do so. You must either find something you have that he wants, or find something you can do which he fears, and present it in such a way as not to immediately raise his guard against persuasion...
Ah.
Transfiguration options still at the ready, he began to hiss...
(remainder in child comment due to length limits)
Solution Class 3: “You Are Not My True Enemy”, aka Talking his Way Out of the Box
The Dark Lord’s utility function isn’t changeable by talking, but that doesn’t prevent Harry from convincing him that his current utility function would be better served by leaving Harry alive, or possibly even helping with Harry’s plans. I propose a step-by-step method for doing so below.
Step 1: Explain in Parseltongue that while his power over Dementors must be understood for oneself, as a hint towards this power he will share what his happy thought is for the Patronus Charm. Furthermore, he will offer a proposal for what the Dark Lord might want to do with this knowledge.
Step 2: Explain in Parseltongue that his happy thought is defeating death for everyone (and the improved, much less destructible human race that would come along with doing that well).
Step 3: Point out in Parseltongue that “everyone” includes Voldemort and that Harry’s earlier statement of preferring Quirrell’s life to his death still holds after his identity was revealed. Segue into explaining that his decision to shoot was made intending only temporary incapacitation rather than death.
Step 4: Tempt Voldemort, still in Parseltongue, by offering an improved society where he is not only safe from death, but can also plot against many competent opponents including deceased ones like Salazar Slytherin. Implicitly contrast this with Voldemort’s plan, which is unlikely to produce any competent opponents and leaves him still worrying about his Horcruxes. What will he do if some other magical civilization eventually destroys that golden plaque?
Step 5: Continue tempting Voldemort in Parseltongue by pointing out that in such a society he wouldn’t have to deal with idiots and wouldn’t have to worry about others destroying the world. State that he knows how annoying idiots are to Voldemort, so this is a major benefit. Further, remind him that Harry must stay away from destruction, or even allowing others the knowledge with which to destroy the world, in pursuing this society.
Step 6: Explain in Parseltongue that the Vow also requires him to point out that Voldemort might be the one to fulfill the prophecy, especially since he was its hearer and many people would consider his plan highly destructive.
Step 7: After piquing Voldemort’s curiosity about why the Vow might require Harry to say this, state in Parseltongue that Harry, like Voldemort, also wishes to decline playing out the drama that Dumbledore imagines.
Step 8: Propose in Parseltongue that they cooperate to bring about a future world such as what Harry described, one they both much prefer to Voldemort’s plan. Point out also that Harry’s hands are tied by the Vow; he cannot allow Voldemort’s plan to go through because Hermione would oppose Voldemort’s plans as destructive and consider them enabled by Harry.
For further demonstration of how to perform these steps, see the Obvious Solution.
(remainder in child comment due to length limits)
My apologies if I’m repeating anything that’s already been said; I’ve been isolating myself from the online discussion to attempt the Final Exam by myself. So here’s what I’ve got:
I’m pleased with myself for coming up with the first two solution classes I’ve listed (and vague ideas about the third, which I later separated into its own class) within 60 seconds, but I didn’t come up with the full Obvious Solution in that time. More work to do...
Solution Class 1: Transfiguration
We know that Harry can Transfigure acids nasty enough to instakill when used to replace a small cross-section of a brain, because this is what he did to the troll (Chapter 89). His ability to perform partial Transfiguration in general is by now well-established. We also know from Chapter 104 that Harry can control how a Transfiguring object approaches the completed Transfigured form, as demonstrated by him succeeding at the shaping exercises he was doing during the Quidditch game. McGonagall also establishes in Chapter 15 that free Transfiguration is wordless and requires no wand movements (only contact between the wand and some part of whatever is to be Transfigured), so Harry can perform a Transfiguration without drawing fire from the Death Eaters by speaking incantations or making wand movements. This solution class involves Harry evading immediate death by combining partial Transfiguration with shaping control to kill the Death Eaters without drawing their fire or killing himself in the process.
In order to kill the Death Eaters, he can use partial Transfiguration to Transfigure a thin cross-section of their brains, much like he did with the troll. However, he will want to choose a cross-section that has a very small total volume for each brain so that he can affect all 36 Death Eaters simultaneously and still make the Transfiguration quick enough to be done before they can react. Some vital part of the brain stem (say, the medulla oblongata) will do nicely. If he wanted to be sure, he could also take a slightly larger cross-section and sever some of the major arteries nearby (supplying assorted parts of the brain) as well.
However, he must choose a volume to Transfigure such that some part of it touches his wand. It is unclear if the requirement is that the volume touches the tip of his wand or merely any part, but either case is solvable.
If he can feel whether a Transfiguration takes or fails, as he has been able to for other spells (such as when he tried to Finite and Alohomora the door in Chapter 23 after Draco locked him in), then he may safely test whether partial Transfiguration allows him to Transfigure air (he didn’t test this since discovering partial Transfiguration) by attempting to Transfigure a tiny volume of air near his wand into something safe (like steel) and feeling whether it takes. Because of the small volume, this test should take less than 5 seconds, not be visible to others, and he should be able to do other things while he’s at it. If he can’t feel whether a Transfiguration takes or fails, he shouldn’t attempt this test and should assume he can’t do so.
If he knows he can partly Transfigure air, he can choose a volume consisting of thin lines of air from the tip of his wand to each Death Eater, further thin lines through each Death Eater’s armor and clothing leading from the air to the chosen cross-section of brain, and the chosen cross-section itself in each Death Eater. He could also choose a volume consisting of a thin line of air from his wand to the ground, and then proceed from the ground using Transfiguration of solids (in case, say, gaseous Transfiguration is harder). (This also opens up the option to quickly Transfigure objects out of the air that will kill the Death Eaters, such as very thin blades, but I don’t know any materials offhand that would have the required compressive strength to make a very thin blade that can nevertheless behead a Death Eater fast enough. Carbon nanotubes might just break, although Transfiguring against tension may help.)
If he doesn’t know he can partly Transfigure air, he can choose a volume composed of solid objects connecting his wand to the desired cross-section. If the volume must touch any part of his wand but does not have to touch the tip, he can choose a volume consisting of a thin line through one of his fingers (preferably the pinky finger just in case something goes wrong) touching the wand up his arm, then down the outside of his torso and leg to the ground, further thin lines through the ground to each Death Eater, yet further thin lines from the ground underneath each Death Eater through their shoes, socks, and bodies to the chosen cross-section of brain, and the chosen cross-section itself in each Death Eater. If the volume must touch the tip of his wand, he can either grasp his wand by the tip without raising it or start the volume with a thin line along the outside of his wand from the tip to one of his fingers, then proceed as above with a volume composed of solid objects. (Recall from Chapter 91 that his wand is robust against small chemical burns.)
Finally, he can use his shaping abilities to Transfigure the desired cross-sections of Death Eater brains into acid before the Transfiguration takes effect on the remainder of the volume, then choose not to complete the Transfiguration of the entire volume (thereby avoiding damage himself). As a further backup, he can also choose a multi-part target form such that the remainder of the volume is Transfigured into something harmless (possibly even exactly what it was before) just in case.
If he can figure out which Death Eater is Lucius (through the code names, perhaps?) he might choose to spare Lucius and hope for his aid.
(Partial) Solution Class 2: Self-Sacrifice
Harry might reason that Voldemort gaining power and taking over the world is a disaster already set in motion by his hand, because he didn’t sufficiently question Quirrell / refrain from showing Quirrell the Hallows symbol / tell Dumbledore about the sense of doom / tell the Order what really happened in the Azkaban breakout, etc. and Hermione would consider Voldemort’s reign a catastrophe. Under the Vow, this would allow him to take lesser risks in order to stop Voldemort or even deal major setbacks to Voldemort’s plan.
So Harry might be willing to risk his own life in order to discarnate Voldemort (and maybe kill the Death Eaters). He could try casting on Voldemort, but that seems stupid in comparison to using the partial Transfiguration attack with the addition of Transfiguring the ground under Voldemort into antimatter (or possibly other suitable explosives if he knows them well enough to Transfigure, but antimatter has the advantages of needing very little Transfigured mass and not leaving any debris that will revert). In order to be sure of discarnating Voldemort, Harry will probably have to let himself be caught in the blast radius; the hope would be that newly enhanced Hermione will survive and maybe become a Light Lady. Alternatively, if Harry has some reason to know that casting on Voldemort would kill (rather than just discarnate) him, that might be enough reason to cast on him despite drawing fire from the Death Eaters.
This is not a complete solution class because it doesn’t let Harry evade immediate death, but it still seems better than death on Voldemort’s terms.
Harry might also notice that the Unbreakable Vow is mind-altering magic and consider it strong enough that he is no longer the same person from before the vow. This might reset his phoenix eligibility, so he might survive anyway on the tiny off-chance that Voldemort and the Death Eaters didn’t put anti-phoenix wards up.
(remainder in child comment due to length limits)
Just thought of another speculation:
If the unicorn’s blood belonging in Hermione (Chapter 111) will keep her alive, does that mean she could sustain a True Patronus indefinitely (with the unicorn’s blood replenishing her life)?
Adding to my previous prediction comment:
Predictions:
The Transfiguration shaping exercise Harry was doing at the Quidditch match (Chapter 104) will become plot-relevant. 75%
Conditional on Harry “tear[ing] apart the very stars in heaven”, him doing so will be a good thing rather than the disaster Voldemort thinks it will be. 80%
Speculations:
Lucius is in a tight spot here. He pledged the House of Malfoy against Hermione’s killer… who turns out to be Voldemort, who has now summoned him and is giving him orders. Perhaps Lucius will help Harry out? Especially since all the Death Eaters have been instructed to watch and point their wands at Harry, not each other, distracting them from any attacks coming from other Death Eaters. Costs of (assuming) unity?
Harry could use the shaping exercise + partial Transfiguration to his advantage. Even if he still can’t Transfigure air, he could Transfigure a thin line through his own body to the ground and into a small cross-section of the Death Eaters’ brains. (Having to go through his own body is why this wasn’t viable before.) All he would have to do is make that Transfigured section acid or some other convenient instakill (or insta-incapacitate if he prefers and can figure one out), use the shaping to get it in the Death Eaters’ brains first, and then stop before finishing the Transfiguration. If he can cast on Voldemort, then that’s even better because he can use the same trick on Voldemort simultaneously.
Presumably Voldemort took the Transfigured rock from Harry by only acting on the ring and using those forces to take the jewel along. That jewel may now be a ‘ticking’ bomb in two senses: 1) the Transfiguration will eventually wear off if not sustained or made permanent and 2) Voldemort touching the jewel directly would mean coming in contact with Harry’s magic.
When Harry uses the True Patronus to resurrect Hermione, he expends a small portion of his life and magic. Yet there is no indication that Hermione is limited to that small portion; she seems just as alive and magical as other first-year Hogwarts students. If that’s true, that implies that the True Patronus provides a positive-sum resurrection method (summing over the total pools of wizarding life and magic). IIRC all the other resurrection / immortality methods are zero-sum at best.
How long does that “spell of repose” Voldemort cast on Hermione (Chapter 111) last? If it’s worn off by now, I’d expect the gunshots and Death Eaters arriving to wake her, although she might be faking sleep (as she did in some of the army battles). It would be very nice for her to wake up soon.
Observations:
I notice that Chapter 112 has lots of moonlight and black robes, which suggests that the snippet at the start of Chapter 1 is coming up.
I notice I am confused about the heavily “storybook” nature of the last few chapters. Is Bahl’s Stupefaction (or similar) in play?
I get the feeling that splitting it up like that was intended to be a test of if we could figure out the flaw in Harry’s plan quickly, much like Harry himself needing (and failing) to figure it out fast.
He did tell Fred and George that their contact might have to go outside Britain for some of the items, so...
[Epistemic status: Unpolished conceptual exploration, possibly of concepts that are extremely obvious and/or have already been discussed. Abandoning concerns about obviousness, previous discussion, polish, fitting the list-of-principles frame, etc. in favor of saying anything at all.] [ETA: Written in about half an hour, with some distraction and wording struggles.]
What is the hypothetical ideal of a corrigible AI? Without worrying about whether it can be implemented in practice or is even tractable to design, just as a theoretical reference to compare proposals to?
I propose that the hypothetical ideal is not an AI that lets the programmer shut it down, but an AI that wants to be corrected—one that will allow a programmer to work on it while it is live and aid the programmer by honestly explaining the results of any changes. It is entirely plausible that this is not achievable by currently-known techniques because we don’t know how to do “caring about a world-state rather than a sensory input / reward signal,” let alone “actually wanting to fulfill human values but being uncertain about those values”, but this still seems to me the ideal.
Suppose such an AI is asked to place a strawberry on the bottom plate of a stack of plates. It would rather set the rest of the stack aside non-destructively than smash them, because it is uncertain about what humans would prefer to be done with those plates and leaving them intact allows more future options. It would rather take the strawberry from a nearby bowl than creating a new strawberry plantation, because it is uncertain about what humans would prefer to be done with the resources that would be directed towards a new strawberry plantation. Likewise, it would rather not run off and develop nanofabrication. It would rather make a decent attempt and then ask the human for feedback instead of turning Earth into computronium to verify the placement of the strawberry, because again, uncertainty over ideal use of resources. It would rather not deceive the human asker or the programmer, because deceiving humans reduces the expected value of future corrections. This seems to me to be what is desired of considerations like “low impact”, “myopia”, “task uncertainty”, “satisficing” …
The list of principles should flow from considering the ideal and obstacles to getting there, along with security-mindset considerations. Just because you believe your AI is safe given unfettered Internet access doesn’t mean you should give it unfettered Internet access—but if you don’t believe your AI is safe given unfettered Internet access, this is a red flag that it is “working against you” on some level.