arisAlexis

Karma: 67

arisAlexis 4 Jul 2025 10:03 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: Viliam’s comment on: arisAlexis’s Shortform
are they intelligent species with own will?

arisAlexis 3 Jul 2025 11:48 UTC
3 points
−9
on: arisAlexis’s Shortform
No overthinking AI risk. People, including here get lost in mind loops and complexity.
An easy guide with everything there being a fact:
- We DO have evidence that scaling works and models are getting better
- We do NOT have evidence that scaling will stall or reach a limit
- We DO have evidence that models are becoming smarter in all human ways
- We do NOT have evidence of a limit in intelligence that can be reached
- We DO have evidence that smarter agents/beings can dominate other agents/beings in nature/history/evolution
- We do NOT have evidence that ever a smarter agent/being was controlled by a lesser intelligent agent/being.
Given these easy to understand data points, there is only one conclusion. That AI risk is real, AI risk is NOW.

arisAlexis 30 Jun 2025 10:08 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: Valentine’s comment on: Consider chilling out in 2028
how can you know if it’s exaggerated? It’s like an earthquake. The fact that it didn’t happen yet doesn’t mean that it will not be destructive if it happens through time. The superintelligence slope doesn’t stop somewhere to evaluate nor do we have any kind of signal that the more time passes the more improbable it is.

arisAlexis 24 Jun 2025 9:15 UTC
−3 points
−3
on: Consider chilling out in 2028
Let’s discuss for now, and then check in about it in 31 months.
I really don’t like these kind of statements because it’s like a null bet. Either the world has gone to hell and nobody cares about this article or author has “I was correct, told ya” rights. I think these kind of statements should not be made in the context of existential risk.

arisAlexis 24 Jun 2025 9:10 UTC
−3 points
−4
in reply to: tslarm’s comment on: A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models
my criticism is that the article is written in a way that is categorically “correcting for a faulted model” from an outsider. Yes you can suggest corrections of course if there is a blatant mistake. But the assumptions are the most important in these models and assumptions are best done by people that have worked and contributed in the top AI labs.

arisAlexis 24 Jun 2025 9:08 UTC
−3 points
0
in reply to: Valentine’s comment on: Consider chilling out in 2028
Although I don’t like comments starting with “your logic slipped” because it sounds passive-aggressive “you are stupid” vibes I will reply.
So what you are saying is that yes this time is different just not today. It will definately happen and all the doomerism is correct but not on a short timeline because ____ insert reasoning that is different than what the top AI minds are saying today.
This is actually and very blatantly a self preserving mechanism that is called “norlmancy bias” very well documented for human species.

arisAlexis 23 Jun 2025 13:05 UTC
1 point
0
on: Racial Dating Preferences and Sexual Racism
another data point is that there are literally no marketing ads showing white male with black female as a couple. Even when racial diversity needs to be shown even at lgbt or racial friendly groups, brochures etc it’s always a black man with a white woman and never vice versa. I guess it’s a chicken and egg problem.

arisAlexis 23 Jun 2025 12:08 UTC
−4 points
−3
on: Consider chilling out in 2028
but you need to form this not like any other argument but like “first time in history of earth life, a species has created a new superior species”. I think all these refutals are missing this specific point. This time is different.

arisAlexis 23 Jun 2025 11:46 UTC
−15 points
−21
on: A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models
I have some familiarity with AI but I am certainly no expert.
Can you explain how can you reconcile this with a huge critique of some top AI experts? What if you are not a domain expert? How dangerous is it to go on a false path? Would a similar comment “I have some familiarity with physics but I am no expert” be good for critique of a fluid dymanics paper?

arisAlexis 6 Apr 2025 10:18 UTC
9 points
2
on: A Slow Guide to Confronting Doom
I think having a huge p(doom) vs a much smaller one would change this article substantially. If you have 20-30 or 50% doom you can still be positive. In all other cases it sounds like a terminal illness. But since the number is subjective living your life like you know you are right is certainly wrong. So I take most of your article and apply it in my daily life and the closest to this is being a stoic but by any means I don’t believe that it would take a miracle for our civilization to survive. It’s more than that and it’s important.

arisAlexis 6 Mar 2025 17:31 UTC
1 point
−2
in reply to: Seth Herd’s comment on: What are the strongest arguments for very short timelines?
no 2. is much more important than academic ML researchers which is the majority of the surveys done. When someone delivers a product and is the only one building it and they tells you X, you should belive X unless there is a super strong argument for the contrary and there just isn’t.

arisAlexis 28 Jan 2025 10:40 UTC
1 point
0
on: To know or not to know
I am kind of buffled about why this effort would go to be 0 votes or even downvoted? Is the message “the world needs to know or we should discuss about it” wrong or the styling of the document?

arisAlexis 28 Jan 2025 10:39 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: ChristianKl’s comment on: To know or not to know
good point. I do not personally think that knowing that there is a possibility you will die without you able to do anything to reverse course adds any value unless you mean worldwide social revolt against all nations to stop AI labs?
but how do we get this message accross ? it can reinforce the point of my article that not enough is being done, only in obscure LW forums.

arisAlexis 22 Aug 2024 10:27 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: kwiat.dev’s comment on: Ten counter-arguments that AI is (not) an existential risk (for now)
but you are comparing epochs before and after Turing test passed. Isnt’ that relevant? The Turing test unanimously was/is an inflection point and arguably most experts think we have already passed it in 2023.

arisAlexis 20 Aug 2024 12:44 UTC
1 point
0
on: Ten counter-arguments that AI is (not) an existential risk (for now)
why would something that you admit that is temporary (for now) matter in an exponential curve? It’s like saying it’s ok to go out for drinks on March 5 2020. Ok sure but 10 days after it wasn’t. The argument must stand for a very long period of time or it’s better not said. And that is the best argument for why we should be cautious, because a) we don’t know for sure and b) things change extremely fast.

arisAlexis 16 May 2024 9:29 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: Lucg’s comment on: How to be an amateur polyglot
isn’t German very easy to learn for Dutch people? most I met became quite fluent very fast due to similarities

arisAlexis 16 May 2024 9:28 UTC
2 points
0
in reply to: Jonathan Sheehy’s comment on: How to be an amateur polyglot
I do agree and I admire you because you learned very different languages which is more difficult. I kept the germanic-latin tree of languages.

arisAlexis 14 May 2024 21:10 UTC
2 points
0
in reply to: Lucg’s comment on: How to be an amateur polyglot
Exaggerated ofc, not sure how to write the pronunciation. Word s like graag (gladly) can be written in English like “hraah” for example. Or krachtig (strong) could be krahtih. Lots of repetition of these sounds.

arisAlexis 14 May 2024 21:07 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: alonso’s comment on: How to be an amateur polyglot
Sure thing you can contact me. In Greek we use several Spanish words in their original form and I was wondering was that because we had many shipping ties with Spain and was it the marineros that brought them? Word s like timón, barca, galleta etc.

I actually find my latín american Friends easier to understand, they do use some unknown words but speak muchuch slower especially vs the Andalusians

arisAlexis 9 May 2024 20:35 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: Leisureguy’s comment on: How to be an amateur polyglot
Very interesting. I suspect the effect would be much greater for Mediterranean languages because Esperanto itself is latin based.