I wonder to what extent the current startup/business culture has this ability and willingness to admit large mistakes.
Most startup ideas are able to fail fast—you come up with various ways to test your minimal product and identify the market need, or pivot in case its not found.
However, there is a different category—hard things. Moonshot projects, e.g., in AI theory, may require a different approach. The market may not be ready to validate or even test your belief. And these setbacks probably should not shake you. You must work your way from an idea to an actual product to see if it works—even when it takes too long of time. Or not? What early signs should be the indicators of the need to pivot? Should you predetermine these red lines? Should they be external/internal? Should they even exist?
Summing up, I don’t know what the line is between being a determined visionary and just falling into the sunk cost fallacy or confirmation bias.
P.S. I find AI tools very helpful in shrinking the time needed to test hypotheses, thus reducing the cost component of the sunk cost fallacy.
I wonder to what extent the current startup/business culture has this ability and willingness to admit large mistakes.
Most startup ideas are able to fail fast—you come up with various ways to test your minimal product and identify the market need, or pivot in case its not found.
However, there is a different category—hard things. Moonshot projects, e.g., in AI theory, may require a different approach. The market may not be ready to validate or even test your belief. And these setbacks probably should not shake you. You must work your way from an idea to an actual product to see if it works—even when it takes too long of time. Or not? What early signs should be the indicators of the need to pivot? Should you predetermine these red lines? Should they be external/internal? Should they even exist?
Summing up, I don’t know what the line is between being a determined visionary and just falling into the sunk cost fallacy or confirmation bias.
P.S. I find AI tools very helpful in shrinking the time needed to test hypotheses, thus reducing the cost component of the sunk cost fallacy.