I think the real difference between people like Taleb and the techno-optimists is that we think the present is cool. He brags about going to dinner in minimalist shoes, and eating food cooked over a fire, whereas I think it’s awesome that I can heat things up instantly in a microwave oven, and do just about anything in meticulously engineered and perfectly fitted, yet cheaply mass-produced, running shoes without worrying about damaging my feet. I also like keyboards, and access to the accumulated knowledge of humanity from anywhere, and contact lenses. And I thought it was funny when he said that condoms were one of the most important new technologies, but aren’t talked about much, as if to imply that condoms aren’t cool. I think that condoms are cool! I remember when I first got condoms, and took one out to play with. After testing it a couple different ways, I thought: *how does anyone manage to break one of these!?” It’s easy to extrapolate that no “cool” technology will exist in the future, if you don’t acknowledge that any cool technology currently exists.
But I think Taleb’s piece is valuable, because it illustrates what we are up against, as people trying to get others to take seriously the risks, and opportunities, presented by future technologies. Taleb seems very serious and respectable, precisely because he is so curmudgeonly and conservative, whereas we seem excitable and silly. And he’s right that singularitarian types tend to overemphasize changes relative to everything that remains the same, and often conflate their predictions of the future with their desires for the future. I think that lesswrong is better than most in this regard, with spokespeople for SI taking care to point out that their singularity hypothesis does not predict accelerating change, and that the consequences of disruptive technology need not be good. Still, I wonder if there’s any way to present a more respectable face to the public, without pretending that we don’t believe what we do.
I used to be a young-earth creationist. I was convinced that young-earth creationism was wrong by old-earth creationists. I was convinced that old-earth creationism was wrong by theistic evolutionists. I was convinced that theistic evolution was wrong, not by Dawkins, but by equally bombastic atheists before the God Delusion was published. I was never convinced of anything by mealy-mouthed atheists pretending to think that religion was a reasonable position that they just didn’t personally agree with.
There is a case to be made for “easing people into it”, when it comes to advocating ideas. That doesn’t mean atheists should advocate Intelligent Design in an attempt to lure in YECs, obviously. And I think it would be equally ill-advised for people like Dawkins to pretend they see religion as anything other than transparently stupid and evil. Better to have the people who actually hold moderate positions advocating those moderate positions.
I don’t think criticisms of tone are necessarily fallacious. But I am suspicious whenever anyone says “stop advocating your position so stridently, or you’ll only drive people further away from your position”, because such claims are usually unfounded, and often associated with sinister ulterior motives.