Bayesian Probability

Bayesian prob­a­bil­ity rep­re­sents a level of cer­tainty re­lat­ing to a po­ten­tial out­come or idea. This is in con­trast to a fre­quen­tist prob­a­bil­ity that rep­re­sents the fre­quency with which a par­tic­u­lar out­come will oc­cur over any num­ber of tri­als.

An event with Bayesian prob­a­bil­ity of .6 (or 60%) should be in­ter­preted as stat­ing “With con­fi­dence 60%, this event con­tains the true out­come”, whereas a fre­quen­tist in­ter­pre­ta­tion would view it as stat­ing “Over 100 tri­als, we should ob­serve event X ap­prox­i­mately 60 times.”

The differ­ence is more ap­par­ent when dis­cussing ideas. A fre­quen­tist will not as­sign prob­a­bil­ity to an idea; ei­ther it is true or false and it can­not be true 6 times out of 10.

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