AI Timelines

This sequence collects my AI timelines-related posts in order from most to least important. If you want to read them all, I’d recommend going in reverse order, since that was the order in which they were written. Originally I was going to tie it all together with a hub post that gives my overall thoughts, but then I changed my mind. Feel free to reach out to me if you want my overall thoughts.

Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute

Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Ap­peals to the Com­plex­ity/​Mys­te­ri­ous­ness/​Effi­ciency of the Brain

Against GDP as a met­ric for timelines and take­off speeds

The date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over

How Rood­man’s GWP model trans­lates to TAI timelines

[Question] What will 2040 prob­a­bly look like as­sum­ing no sin­gu­lar­ity?