I’m pretty sure that if China decides that trying to take military control of Taiwan’s chip fabs is the correct move, that this will be because there is evidence in the world that the chip supply has become critical in some national security sense. In which case, I really doubt the US will let them take the fabs. The real question then is what will the US military do? Oppose Chinese forces? Destroy the fabs themselves? Forcibly evacuate (kidnap) the skilled personnel? What the Taiwanese government does only matters if it acts first, such as proactively destroying the fabs. Even sabotaged fabs (and kidnapped personnel) would be valuable to China, since it would aid them in learning to reverse engineer the technology for themselves.
My guess is that fear of US involvement is the primary reason that China has not yet made a military move against Taiwan. Imagine, for a moment, the same economic and military forces in play within Taiwan and China, but no other countries with the will or capacity to intervene. Doesn’t takeover of Taiwan seem pretty likely in that scenario?
I’m pretty sure that if China decides that trying to take military control of Taiwan’s chip fabs is the correct move, that this will be because there is evidence in the world that the chip supply has become critical in some national security sense. In which case, I really doubt the US will let them take the fabs. The real question then is what will the US military do? Oppose Chinese forces? Destroy the fabs themselves? Forcibly evacuate (kidnap) the skilled personnel? What the Taiwanese government does only matters if it acts first, such as proactively destroying the fabs. Even sabotaged fabs (and kidnapped personnel) would be valuable to China, since it would aid them in learning to reverse engineer the technology for themselves.
My guess is that fear of US involvement is the primary reason that China has not yet made a military move against Taiwan. Imagine, for a moment, the same economic and military forces in play within Taiwan and China, but no other countries with the will or capacity to intervene. Doesn’t takeover of Taiwan seem pretty likely in that scenario?