I don’t understand why we need to conditional on progress changing pace. At every point so far, models have been capable in the predicted ways, and we only manage to patch the risk afterwards. And we know that exponentials grow faster than humans can adapt, that’s proven by examples basically everywhere. (Even if progress were linear, only fixing failures after they occur would be a dangerous pace of relative safety progress!)
I don’t understand why we need to conditional on progress changing pace. At every point so far, models have been capable in the predicted ways, and we only manage to patch the risk afterwards. And we know that exponentials grow faster than humans can adapt, that’s proven by examples basically everywhere. (Even if progress were linear, only fixing failures after they occur would be a dangerous pace of relative safety progress!)