The thing is we don’t need to hypothesize this extra mechanic in order to explain the observations we have seen.
We do if we want the universe to be computable. To calculate our posterior probability of the simulation hypothesis, P(A|B), using Bayes’s Theorem, we first find (among other things) P(B|A), the probability that we would have observed the new evidence if the simulation hypothesis were true. I’m arguing that this is higher than Harry thinks (hence so is P(A|B)), since it’s easy to come up with ways that it could happen (contra Harry’s claim quoted above). I’m not claiming that P(A|B) is actually high.
More generally, people need to be open to hacks and kludges when considering the simulation hypothesis.
We do if we want the universe to be computable. To calculate our posterior probability of the simulation hypothesis, P(A|B), using Bayes’s Theorem, we first find (among other things) P(B|A), the probability that we would have observed the new evidence if the simulation hypothesis were true. I’m arguing that this is higher than Harry thinks (hence so is P(A|B)), since it’s easy to come up with ways that it could happen (contra Harry’s claim quoted above). I’m not claiming that P(A|B) is actually high.
More generally, people need to be open to hacks and kludges when considering the simulation hypothesis.