“One of the important parts of my threat model is that I think 99% of the damage from GPT-3 was done the moment the paper was published. And, as they say about the nuclear bomb, the only secret was that it was possible. And I think there’s a bit of naivety that sometimes goes into these arguments, where people are, ‘Well, EleutherAI accelerated things, they drew attention to the meme’. And I think there’s a lot of hindsight bias there, in that people don’t realize how everyone knew about this, except the alignment community. Everyone at OpenAI, Google Brain and DeepMind. People knew about this, and they figured it out fucking fast.”
I also agree, in that it gave people possibility, albeit my timeline for AI-PONR is 2016-2022, from the time of go being crushed by AI, basically proving that we managed to get an intuition in AI, to the Chinchilla scaling paper which gave a clear path to human-level AI and superhuman AI. It also threw out the old scaling laws too. I’d also add Gato to the list. Despite overhype, Deepmind plans to scale it in the next few years, and it’s eerily close to solving the software for robots.
I also agree, in that it gave people possibility, albeit my timeline for AI-PONR is 2016-2022, from the time of go being crushed by AI, basically proving that we managed to get an intuition in AI, to the Chinchilla scaling paper which gave a clear path to human-level AI and superhuman AI. It also threw out the old scaling laws too. I’d also add Gato to the list. Despite overhype, Deepmind plans to scale it in the next few years, and it’s eerily close to solving the software for robots.