Tangential point: [epistemic status: armchair speculation without expertise]
Given that the US gov has started taking AI at least seriously enough to think about the underlying hardware as relevant to national security and banning the export to China, and also given that the US is significantly dependent on Taiwan for the hardware advantage is does have… Seems really unlikely that the US would give up Taiwan to China in a treaty. Probably the US would back Taiwan substantially more strongly than it has backed Ukraine, if there was a China-Taiwan active conflict initiated. Possibly maneuvering US battleships in Taiwanese waters and such, to play at brinkmanship. I’m no expert in this, just speculating.
Tangential point: [epistemic status: armchair speculation without expertise]
Given that the US gov has started taking AI at least seriously enough to think about the underlying hardware as relevant to national security and banning the export to China, and also given that the US is significantly dependent on Taiwan for the hardware advantage is does have… Seems really unlikely that the US would give up Taiwan to China in a treaty. Probably the US would back Taiwan substantially more strongly than it has backed Ukraine, if there was a China-Taiwan active conflict initiated. Possibly maneuvering US battleships in Taiwanese waters and such, to play at brinkmanship. I’m no expert in this, just speculating.