The problem with looking at how many doomsayers were successful in history is that it completely overlooks the concerned hypothesis itself. Doomsday prophecies are not all equally probable. If we constrain our attention to prophecies of the destruction of the whole Earth (which seems most relevant for this case), the rate of success is obviously 0.
The problem with looking at how many doomsayers were successful in history is that it completely overlooks the concerned hypothesis itself. Doomsday prophecies are not all equally probable. If we constrain our attention to prophecies of the destruction of the whole Earth (which seems most relevant for this case), the rate of success is obviously 0.