You seem to be talking about uncertainty about the odds.
Not quite. Damage is a continuous random variable. You can construct an estimated distribution for this variable. This distribution is bounded on the left by zero (we’ll ignore fights healing you e.g. by knocking out a bad tooth) and is bounded on the right by death. Within these limits our estimated distribution can be narrower (you’re more certain about how much damage you will sustain) or wider (you’re less certain).
I am saying that damage from a bar fight has a wide distribution.
Given the relative frequencies of bar fights and serious injuries, it doesn’t seem remotely plausible that they’re all that dangerous.
Do you have data on the frequencies of serious injuries conditional on the fact of a bar fight?
I doubt there’s any direct data about the safety of bar fights.
The yearly incidence of facial fractures in Finland is 80/100000, which is quite high. Half of fhose are caused by violence. Significant majority of that violence has something to do with alcohol. There are several other serious injury types mostly associated with violence, and this is only one of them.
Not quite. Damage is a continuous random variable. You can construct an estimated distribution for this variable. This distribution is bounded on the left by zero (we’ll ignore fights healing you e.g. by knocking out a bad tooth) and is bounded on the right by death. Within these limits our estimated distribution can be narrower (you’re more certain about how much damage you will sustain) or wider (you’re less certain).
I am saying that damage from a bar fight has a wide distribution.
Do you have data on the frequencies of serious injuries conditional on the fact of a bar fight?
I doubt there’s any direct data about the safety of bar fights.
The yearly incidence of facial fractures in Finland is 80/100000, which is quite high. Half of fhose are caused by violence. Significant majority of that violence has something to do with alcohol. There are several other serious injury types mostly associated with violence, and this is only one of them.
Damage is bounded on the right by death.
We are not talking about quality of life here.